MUR NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Murphy Oil Corporation · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

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Latest close 38.95 USD
5.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 8.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.8%, after a 12.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 56/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 61 out of 100
Latest Close 38.95 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 5.8% latest completed week
4W Return 12.5% short-term follow-through
12W Return -3.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 82.7% 43 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 1-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 56.84% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 5.8% Latest completed week; four-week move 12.5%. Indicator stack 49/32 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 56.84% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 56/100 conviction; expected move 11.0%. News sentiment 54/100 54 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 8.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.8%, after a 12.5% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.4812-week average 0.77

12-week confirmation

Trend active9/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.48Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 12.5% over four weeks, -3.5% over 12 weeks, and 55.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 1 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W5.8%
4W12.5%
12W-3.5%
26W25.7%
52W55.9%
Active trend streak1 weeks
Active weeks in one year43
Trend breadth82.7%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.90Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-21.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership12.40Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change362.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 90%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength84/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Value80/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Quality29/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Momentum86/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 15; rank 1 is best.
Growth4/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
66.4x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
30.9%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
69.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-1034.1%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
84.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-197.8%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-4.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-78.4%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-20.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.5%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
3.5%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

MUR shows volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.13, expected move of 11.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction56/100
Expected move11.0%
Put/call volume0.13
Pressure86
Speculation44
Volatility76
Trend agreement11
Open options detail
Insider activity12 / 8

12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 54 relevant articles.

13 positive · 40 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move11.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-9.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.9%Week of 15 May.
Worst week-11.7%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week+5.8%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains13
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses2
Sharp losses8
Recent vol7.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split34/18Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.5% / -5.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape59/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 59/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis55/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 9/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 9/12.

Activity pressure 0.48; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.84%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.84% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors68/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 42; Small Cap Core rank 34 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options40/100

MUR shows volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.13, expected move of 11.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 11.0% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 54 relevant articles.

Murphy Oil’s Earnings Beat Streak Raises Fresh Questions About MUR’s Long‑Term Profitability Narrative Insiders12 / 8

12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202638.95 USD5.8%35.77 USD32.66 USD-0.9012.407.2MOn
17 Jul 202636.83 USD9.1%35.49 USD32.65 USD-1.016.238.6MOff
10 Jul 202633.75 USD5.9%35.29 USD32.65 USD-1.14-3.696.6MOff
3 Jul 202631.88 USD-7.9%35.26 USD32.66 USD-0.96-7.647.8MOff
26 Jun 202634.62 USD1.0%35.26 USD32.68 USD-0.742.6814.0MOn
19 Jun 202634.29 USD-11.7%35.16 USD32.67 USD-0.80-0.248.6MOn
12 Jun 202638.84 USD0.4%35.02 USD32.67 USD-0.6014.318.6MOn
5 Jun 202638.67 USD6.9%34.71 USD32.64 USD-0.3715.009.1MOn
29 May 202636.19 USD-4.8%34.34 USD32.61 USD-0.215.656.3MOn
22 May 202638.00 USD-5.7%34.05 USD32.60 USD0.2013.198.0MOn
15 May 202640.29 USD9.9%33.72 USD32.56 USD0.3721.917.6MOn
8 May 202636.66 USD-9.2%33.27 USD32.50 USD0.3512.0611.8MOn
1 May 202640.38 USD4.4%32.92 USD32.46 USD0.5427.036.2MOn
24 Apr 202638.67 USD5.8%32.56 USD32.40 USD0.7023.837.6MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.