- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 62.62% based on similar historical setup states.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
NRG
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
NRG Energy Inc. · Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Latest close
141.0 USD
9.2%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 9.2%, after a -5.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 59/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 5d.
Setup score
33
out of 100
Latest Close
141.0 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
9.2%
latest completed week
4W Return
-5.6%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-8.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
50.0%
26 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.9x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
9.2%
Latest completed week; four-week move -5.6%.
Indicator stack
28/41
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 62.62%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
59/100 conviction; expected move 11.0%.
News sentiment
54/100
55 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
5d
Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 9.2%, after a -5.6% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0512-week average 0.16
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.05Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -5.6% over four weeks, -8.0% over 12 weeks, and -8.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year26
Trend breadth50.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.58Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change23.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-15.36Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-39.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 93%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength2/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best.
Value7/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Quality12/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Momentum22/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Growth20/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework0/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 124.5x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.9x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 4.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 17.1% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 1.6% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 6.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 1.4% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 10.7% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -82.5% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -39.2% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.3% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 5.4% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 6.7% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 9.0x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
NRG shows volatility options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.03, expected move of 11.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction59/100
Expected move11.0%
Put/call volume0.03
Insider activity12 / 8
12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.
16 positive · 33 neutral · 6 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings5dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move11.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-25.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+12.4%Week of 13 Feb.
Worst week-13.8%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+9.2%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses7
Recent vol7.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.5% / -4.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Utilities
4-week rank84 / 100
Group average-1.9%
Trend breadth53.0%
Trend53.0%active weekly trend signals
MD41.0%positive activity pressure
RS36.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Utilities - Independent Power Producers
4-week rank5 / 8
Group average-7.0%
Trend breadth37.5%
Trend37.5%active weekly trend signals
MD37.5%positive activity pressure
RS25.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape33/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 33/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis9/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.05; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 62.62%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 62.62% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors9/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 11 SVQF0/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 1010.0 of 1014 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options38/100NRG shows volatility options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.03, expected move of 11.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 11.0% Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.
13,752 Shares in NRG Energy, Inc. $NRG Acquired by Clough Capital Partners L P Insiders12 / 812 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings5dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 141.0 USD | 9.2% | 148.8 USD | 104.9 USD | -0.58 | -15.36 | 11.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 129.1 USD | -8.1% | 149.5 USD | 104.3 USD | -0.46 | -23.32 | 10.4M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 140.4 USD | 2.7% | 150.3 USD | 103.7 USD | -0.48 | -18.37 | 9.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 136.7 USD | -8.5% | 151.0 USD | 103.0 USD | -0.61 | -19.82 | 11.3M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 149.4 USD | 10.6% | 151.8 USD | 102.3 USD | -0.76 | -11.02 | 20.7M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 135.1 USD | 7.6% | 152.5 USD | 101.6 USD | -1.14 | -21.84 | 9.2M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 125.5 USD | -2.9% | 153.2 USD | 101.0 USD | -1.16 | -27.16 | 12.1M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 129.2 USD | -3.6% | 154.5 USD | 100.4 USD | -1.15 | -25.10 | 11.0M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 134.1 USD | -2.6% | 155.9 USD | 99.73 USD | -1.06 | -24.75 | 11.0M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 137.7 USD | 7.7% | 157.2 USD | 99.07 USD | -0.83 | -22.17 | 14.1M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 127.8 USD | -7.5% | 158.2 USD | 98.40 USD | -0.49 | -27.62 | 16.7M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 138.1 USD | -9.9% | 159.5 USD | 97.78 USD | -0.11 | -22.22 | 15.0M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 153.4 USD | -3.7% | 160.2 USD | 97.09 USD | 0.10 | -11.76 | 10.1M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 159.3 USD | -4.7% | 160.6 USD | 96.30 USD | 0.05 | -7.42 | 15.9M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.