VST NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Vistra Corp. · Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

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Latest close 163.4 USD
5.1% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 35.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.1%, after a -0.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 43/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 7d.

Setup score 37 out of 100
Latest Close 163.4 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 5.1% latest completed week
4W Return -0.1% short-term follow-through
12W Return 5.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 30.8% 16 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.93% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 5.1% Latest completed week; four-week move -0.1%. Indicator stack 17/63 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.93% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 43/100 conviction; expected move 9.2%. News sentiment 58/100 55 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 7d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 35.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.1%, after a -0.1% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1112-week average 0.09

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.11Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -0.1% over four weeks, 5.4% over 12 weeks, and -14.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W5.1%
4W-0.1%
12W5.4%
26W2.2%
52W-14.7%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year16
Trend breadth30.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.53Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change42.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-12.10Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change10.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength17/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Value20/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Quality78/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Momentum19/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Growth5/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 96; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework34/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
24.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
3.4x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.8x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
10.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
12.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
21.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
50.7%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
11.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-25.5%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-7.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
13.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.6%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.9%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

VST shows bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.29, expected move of 9.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction43/100
Expected move9.2%
Put/call volume0.29
Pressure56
Speculation43
Volatility89
Trend agreement3
Open options detail
Insider activity10 / 8

10 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

34 positive · 16 neutral · 5 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-25.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.6%Week of 13 Feb.
Worst week-8.8%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+5.1%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses8
Recent vol6.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.4% / -3.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape35/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis23/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.11; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.93%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.93% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors33/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 23 SVQF34/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 671.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options44/100

VST shows bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.29, expected move of 9.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 9.2% Sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

Vistra (NYSE:VST) Price Target Raised to $212.00 at Morgan Stanley Insiders10 / 8

10 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings7d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 2026163.4 USD5.1%158.1 USD121.2 USD0.53-12.1015.0MOff
17 Jul 2026155.4 USD-2.2%158.0 USD120.3 USD0.68-17.3926.0MOff
10 Jul 2026158.9 USD5.2%158.3 USD119.5 USD0.74-17.5015.9MOff
3 Jul 2026151.1 USD-7.6%158.6 USD118.7 USD0.54-21.1216.3MOff
26 Jun 2026163.5 USD-0.0%159.2 USD117.9 USD0.37-13.4721.7MOff
19 Jun 2026163.5 USD10.6%159.6 USD117.0 USD0.11-16.1021.9MOff
12 Jun 2026147.8 USD-0.5%159.8 USD116.1 USD-0.14-23.9922.3MOff
5 Jun 2026148.6 USD-7.2%160.7 USD115.3 USD-0.19-23.6919.4MOff
29 May 2026160.0 USD2.5%162.1 USD114.5 USD-0.04-20.3920.8MOff
22 May 2026156.1 USD11.9%163.0 USD113.6 USD-0.05-21.5832.7MOff
15 May 2026139.5 USD-5.4%164.5 USD112.8 USD-0.01-29.6328.9MOff
8 May 2026147.5 USD-4.9%166.5 USD112.0 USD0.11-25.8332.0MOff
1 May 2026155.1 USD-5.5%168.2 USD111.2 USD0.01-20.4321.9MOff
24 Apr 2026164.1 USD0.4%169.7 USD110.4 USD-0.13-15.1916.1MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.