CERT NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Certara Inc · Healthcare · Health Information Services

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Latest close 7.51 USD
8.4% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 12.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 32.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.4%, after a 28.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 58/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 36 out of 100
Latest Close 7.51 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 8.4% latest completed week
4W Return 28.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 21.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 0.0% 0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 8.4% Latest completed week; four-week move 28.6%. Indicator stack 0/82 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Recent Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 58/100 conviction; expected move 27.0%. News sentiment 51/100 48 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 12.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 32.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.4%, after a 28.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1912-week average 0.07

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.19Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 28.6% over four weeks, 21.5% over 12 weeks, and -32.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W8.4%
4W28.6%
12W21.5%
26W-24.9%
52W-32.3%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.24Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change119.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-18.35Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change56.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 88% Model confidence 84%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength8/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
Value30/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Quality24/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 77; rank 1 is best.
Momentum9/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
Growth35/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
13.0x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
7.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
58.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
10.5%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
23.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.8%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
6.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-6.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
7.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
7.1%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.5x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

CERT shows volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 27.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction58/100
Expected move27.0%
Put/call volume0.00
Pressure100
Speculation27
Volatility96
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity10 / 10

10 acquisitions and 10 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 48 relevant articles.

12 positive · 28 neutral · 8 negative
Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move27.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-45.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility11.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+19.3%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-29.0%Week of 15 May.
Latest week+8.4%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses9
Recent vol11.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol9.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.3% / -8.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape27/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis26/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.19; No reversal markers Factors16/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 8; Small Cap Core rank 33 Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options37/100

CERT shows volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 27.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 27.0% Sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 48 relevant articles.

Certara Inc (CERT) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates Insiders10 / 10

10 acquisitions and 10 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 20267.51 USD8.4%6.70 USD12.00 USD1.24-18.3515.6MOff
17 Jul 20266.93 USD2.4%6.75 USD12.08 USD1.22-26.7713.6MOff
10 Jul 20266.77 USD-2.9%6.82 USD12.16 USD1.12-32.2123.3MOff
3 Jul 20266.97 USD19.3%6.88 USD12.24 USD0.83-29.9918.4MOff
26 Jun 20265.84 USD5.4%6.95 USD12.31 USD0.56-41.6929.9MOff
19 Jun 20265.54 USD6.5%7.06 USD12.39 USD0.37-48.0623.4MOff
12 Jun 20265.20 USD-3.2%7.17 USD12.47 USD0.25-50.7822.0MOff
5 Jun 20265.37 USD-7.7%7.27 USD12.54 USD0.06-48.9217.7MOff
29 May 20265.82 USD11.1%7.38 USD12.62 USD-0.05-48.1116.5MOff
22 May 20265.24 USD17.0%7.58 USD12.72 USD-0.40-52.7719.4MOff
15 May 20264.48 USD-29.0%7.82 USD12.82 USD-0.67-59.8927.4MOff
8 May 20266.31 USD2.1%8.07 USD12.92 USD-0.86-44.8012.6MOff
1 May 20266.18 USD-2.2%8.26 USD13.01 USD-1.08-44.0212.9MOff
24 Apr 20266.32 USD1.6%8.49 USD13.12 USD-1.12-43.0414.2MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.