Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CERT options intelligence
Certara Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 29 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 12:01 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CERT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 26.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
26.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+8.4%
RS -18.3
Expected move
26.0%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.76
Max pain
7.50
Underlying
7.51
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
50
Research Brief
CERT has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.56–9.46; The largest call open-interest concentration is 7.50; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 7.50.
Priced range5.56–9.46
Call concentration7.50
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference7.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 5.56 to 9.46. Max pain at 7.50 sits inside that range, 0.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
5.567.51 ± 1.959.46
Confirmation level
A close beyond 9.46 or below 5.56 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation1 × 22%
+0.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility93 × 10%
+9.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 7.50; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 7.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-66.7%
4
30
5.00-33.4%
20
44
7.50-0.1%
2760
0
10.0033.2%
145
0
12.5066.4%
33
0
15.0099.7%
2
0
17.50133.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.76
21 Aug
22d
0.78
18 Sep
50d
0.76
20 Nov
113d
0.40
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
8
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 29 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 50 / 50
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3409 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+8.4%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $2500 estimated gross traded notional, and 73% of visible notional.
$2500
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $825 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$825
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $84 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$84
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 1 completed session
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close7.51
1W+8.4%
RS-18.3
Fair value-37.4%
Options pressure100
Speculation1
Volatility93
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:15
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.3%
30 Jul 11:01
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 26.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 30
Strike7.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 2760
Puts · V 0 · OI 44
Strike10.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 145
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 33
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.76
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.78
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.76
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts12
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV1.82
Skew1.39
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.14
Skew-0.62
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.62
Put IV1.97
Skew1.35
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.08
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCERT260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI2760
IV0.60
ContractCERT260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI-
IV1.92
ContractCERT260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume7
OI145
IV0.43
ContractCERT261120C00007500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI1581
IV0.35
ContractCERT261120C00005000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI162
IV1.02
ContractCERT261120C00010000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI84
IV0.62
ContractCERT260821P00007500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI44
IV1.82
ContractCERT270219C00007500
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI41
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.