Ticker Options Intelligence

CERT options intelligence

Certara Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 12:47 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CERT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -4.9%

RS -15.0

Expected move 12.2%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.65
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 7.55
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 84

Research Brief

CERT has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 6.63–8.47; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range6.63–8.47
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 6.63 to 8.47. Max pain at 2.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
6.637.55 ± 0.928.47
Confirmation level

A close beyond 8.47 or below 6.63 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation3 × 22%
+0.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
2.50-66.9%
0
0
5.00-33.8%
4
0
7.50-0.7%
17
0
10.0032.5%
87
0
12.5065.6%
0
0
15.0098.7%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 96% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$30,151Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak7.50+$28,685
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-66.9%
+$3
5.00-33.8%
+$2
7.50-0.7%
+$28,685
10.0032.5%
+$1,437
12.5065.6%
+$13
15.0098.7%
+$11
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.95× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.65 18 Sep 2d
0.42 16 Oct 30d
0.47 20 Nov 65d
0.40 19 Feb 156d
0.57 21 May 247d
0.34 20 Aug 338d
0.42 19 Nov 429d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

8
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

11 matured · 1 directional

Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move4.7%
19 Aug Volatility · 53 5.4% through expiry 16.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 52 5.4% through expiry 21.7% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Bullish · 42 2.8% through expiry 39.0% priced · v2.0
11 Aug Mixed · 30 2.8% through expiry 40.5% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 52 2.8% through expiry 18.9% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 52 4.1% through expiry 16.3% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Volatility · 52 4.1% through expiry 19.8% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Volatility · 47 4.1% through expiry 14.3% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 52 4.1% through expiry 43.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 53 4.1% through expiry 21.0% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Volatility · 58 12.3% through expiry 27.0% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
84 / 84
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4,675 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-4.9%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2,160 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$2,160
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1,900 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$1,900
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $450 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$450
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $160 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$160
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $5 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$5

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

61

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank48th
Volume/OI rank52th
IV rank83th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close7.55
1W-4.9%
RS-15.0
Fair value-35.2%
Options pressure100
Speculation3
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.2% muted
30d avg 23.9% · 11 sessions 18th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 1.65 near normal
30d avg 1.25 · 11 sessions 73th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 19/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 19/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 near normal
30d avg 0.03 · 11 sessions 64th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:15 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.3%
30 Jul 11:01 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 26.0%
31 Jul 07:51 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 27.0%
2 Aug 09:34 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 21.0%
4 Aug 10:22 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 43.5%
5 Aug 10:54 Volatility
Pressure 60
Move 14.3%
6 Aug 11:03 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 19.8%
7 Aug 12:45 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 16.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 17
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 87
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV1.65
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.42
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.47
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts12
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Expiry21 May 2027
Contracts12
Avg IV0.57
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.45
Put IV0.70
Skew-0.75
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.18
Skew-0.19
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.13
Skew-0.60
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.09
Skew-0.06
21 May 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.07
Skew-0.16

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCERT270219C00007500
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI71
IV0.01
ContractCERT260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume4
OI-
IV0.01
ContractCERT261120C00007500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume3
OI1555
IV0.86
ContractCERT260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume1
OI17
IV0.01
ContractCERT261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume1
OI3
IV0.01
ContractCERT261120C00005000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI155
IV0.01
ContractCERT261120C00010000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI117
IV0.74
ContractCERT260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI87
IV1.45

Evidence context