- Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.75% based on similar historical setup states.
ASO
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Latest close
46.58 USD
-3.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -13.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -3.7%, after a -4.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 54/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 32d.
Setup score
33
out of 100
Latest Close
46.58 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-3.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
-4.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-13.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
67.3%
35 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.6x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-3.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move -4.0%.
Indicator stack
37/24
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.75%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
54/100 conviction; expected move 6.8%.
News sentiment
56/100
65 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
32d
Next report is scheduled for 01 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -13.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -3.7%, after a -4.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1112-week average 0.31
12-week confirmation
Trend active1/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.11Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -4.0% over four weeks, -13.2% over 12 weeks, and -15.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year35
Trend breadth67.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.28Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-32.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-18.22Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change6.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Jan 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 100%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength85/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Value94/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Quality74/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Momentum19/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Growth13/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework80/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 7.5x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.5x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.9x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 14.2% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 34.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 8.6% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 10.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 11.0% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 3.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -1.2% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -9.3% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.2% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 6.6% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 7.8% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
ASO shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.08, expected move of 6.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction54/100
Expected move6.8%
Put/call volume0.08
Insider activity15 / 5
15 acquisitions and 5 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment56/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 65 relevant articles.
24 positive · 37 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings32dNext report is scheduled for 01 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move6.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-25.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.5%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-7.5%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-3.7%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.1% / -4.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.8%
Trend breadth36.0%
Trend36.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS31.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Specialty Retail
4-week rank29 / 44
Group average-2.4%
Trend breadth34.1%
Trend34.1%active weekly trend signals
MD61.4%positive activity pressure
RS25.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape34/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 34/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis12/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 1/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.11; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.75%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.75% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors69/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 9; Small Cap Core rank 5 SVQF80/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 146.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options36/100ASO shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.08, expected move of 6.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 6.8% Sentiment56/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 65 relevant articles.
Academy Sports + Outdoors Advances Omnichannel Growth Strategy with Launch of Academy Retail Media Insiders15 / 515 acquisitions and 5 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings32dNext report is scheduled for 01 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 46.58 USD | -3.7% | 53.86 USD | 52.22 USD | -1.28 | -18.22 | 4.5M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 48.39 USD | 4.5% | 53.99 USD | 52.29 USD | -1.10 | -16.96 | 6.7M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 46.31 USD | -3.2% | 54.16 USD | 52.32 USD | -1.03 | -24.29 | 7.8M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 47.84 USD | -1.4% | 54.45 USD | 52.38 USD | -0.97 | -20.86 | 7.3M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 48.50 USD | -6.4% | 54.52 USD | 52.42 USD | -0.97 | -19.39 | 10.1M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 51.82 USD | 1.9% | 54.50 USD | 52.44 USD | -1.04 | -18.04 | 6.6M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 50.86 USD | -1.4% | 54.23 USD | 52.42 USD | -1.05 | -17.64 | 12.3M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 51.60 USD | -2.0% | 54.01 USD | 52.40 USD | -1.07 | -14.73 | 7.2M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 52.65 USD | 0.5% | 53.81 USD | 52.38 USD | -0.98 | -17.07 | 5.8M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 52.37 USD | 3.9% | 53.64 USD | 52.36 USD | -0.93 | -15.25 | 5.8M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 50.40 USD | -6.6% | 53.47 USD | 52.34 USD | -0.83 | -17.55 | 7.6M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 53.95 USD | 0.5% | 53.49 USD | 52.35 USD | -0.64 | -12.32 | 5.7M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 53.67 USD | -5.9% | 53.33 USD | 52.37 USD | -0.48 | -8.05 | 5.6M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 57.02 USD | -2.5% | 53.32 USD | 52.41 USD | -0.31 | -0.79 | 4.8M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.