Ticker Options Intelligence

ASO options intelligence

Academy Sports Outdoors Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 29 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 11:42 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ASO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 6.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.08

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -3.7%

RS -18.2

Expected move 6.8%
Put-call volume 0.08
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.71
Max pain 44.00
Underlying 46.58
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 556

Research Brief

ASO has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 43.39–49.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 43.00. The most active strike by current volume is 38.00.

Priced range43.39–49.77
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration43.00
Max pain reference44.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 43.39 to 49.77. Max pain at 44.00 sits inside that range, 5.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
43.3946.58 ± 3.1949.77
Confirmation level

A close beyond 49.77 or below 43.39 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 90/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure90 × 42%
+37.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 43.00. The most active strike by current volume is 38.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
37.00-20.6%
32
0
38.00-18.4%
110
9
39.00-16.3%
135
11
40.00-14.1%
86
207
43.00-7.7%
8
161
44.00-5.5%
7
30
45.00-3.4%
130
39
46.00-1.2%
10
112
47.000.9%
139
102
48.003.0%
31
5
49.005.2%
80
32
50.007.3%
131
47
51.009.5%
57
10
52.0011.6%
83
1
53.0013.8%
28
0
54.0015.9%
66
0
75.0061.0%
451
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.48× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.71 31 Jul 1d
0.58 7 Aug 8d
0.37 14 Aug 15d
0.43 21 Aug 22d
0.43 28 Aug 29d
0.33 4 Sep 36d
0.51 18 Sep 50d
0.47 16 Oct 78d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
29 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
556 / 556
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

86/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $765898 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+90
1W price-3.7%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split C 99% / P 1% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 392 contracts traded, $575990 estimated gross traded notional, and 75% of visible notional.
$575990
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 146 contracts traded, $152380 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$152380
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $22250 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$22250
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $2952 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2952
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $2642 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2642

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 1 completed session

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close46.58
1W-3.7%
RS-18.2
Fair value-10.8%
Options pressure90
Speculation41
Volatility77
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.8% history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
IV 0.71 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:51 Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 5.2%
30 Jul 10:42 Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 6.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 16 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike34.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike36.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike37.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 32
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike38.00
Calls · V 36 · OI 110
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 35 · OI 135
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 86
Puts · V 0 · OI 11

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.71
Put-call0.05
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.10
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.02
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.43
Put-call2.88
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.91
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.49
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.97
Skew0.38
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.50
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.75
Skew-0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.20

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractASO260814C00034000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike34.00
Volume192
OI1
IV1.35
ContractASO260814C00036000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike36.00
Volume192
OI-
IV1.24
ContractASO260731C00038000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike38.00
Volume36
OI110
IV2.81
ContractASO260731C00039000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike39.00
Volume35
OI135
IV2.75
ContractASO260731C00044000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike44.00
Volume18
OI7
IV1.48
ContractASO260731C00045000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike45.00
Volume17
OI130
IV1.09
ContractASO260731C00030000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike30.00
Volume16
OI5
IV4.72
ContractASO260821P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume10
OI310
IV0.45