- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
BABA
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Latest close
112.1 USD
-2.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 20.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.5%, after a 18.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 35/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 30d.
Setup score
31
out of 100
Latest Close
112.1 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-2.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
18.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-13.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
44.2%
23 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move 18.3%.
Indicator stack
24/40
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Bullish
35/100 conviction; expected move 4.5%.
News sentiment
55/100
61 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
30d
Next report is scheduled for 28 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 20.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.5%, after a 18.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0212-week average 0.04
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.02Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 18.3% over four weeks, -13.9% over 12 weeks, and -5.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year23
Trend breadth44.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.55Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change0.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-26.23Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change30.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength72/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Value99/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Quality23/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Momentum21/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Growth4/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework96/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 2.6x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 47.9% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 39.8% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 10.3% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 19.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 7.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 2.7% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -20.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -18.7% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.9% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 2.5% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.4% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.8x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
BABA shows bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.47, expected move of 4.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction35/100
Expected move4.5%
Put/call volume0.47
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 61 relevant articles.
23 positive · 30 neutral · 8 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings30dNext report is scheduled for 28 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-41.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher8 of 2618 weeks finished lower.
Best week+16.8%Week of 10 Jul.
Worst week-11.5%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week-2.5%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses10
Recent vol6.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.1% / -4.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank3 / 100
Group average-0.8%
Trend breadth36.0%
Trend36.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS31.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Internet Retail
4-week rank3 / 31
Group average-0.3%
Trend breadth29.0%
Trend29.0%active weekly trend signals
MD51.6%positive activity pressure
RS12.9%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape25/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 25/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis9/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.02; No reversal markers Factors53/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 21 SVQF96/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 41.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options44/100BABA shows bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.47, expected move of 4.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.5% Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 61 relevant articles.
Oracle vs. Alibaba: Which Cloud & AI Giant Should You Buy Right Now? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings30dNext report is scheduled for 28 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 112.1 USD | -2.5% | 132.3 USD | 105.8 USD | -0.55 | -26.23 | 46.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 115.0 USD | 2.4% | 133.6 USD | 105.7 USD | -0.50 | -25.07 | 59.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 112.3 USD | 16.8% | 134.7 USD | 105.5 USD | -0.64 | -28.18 | 88.3M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 96.14 USD | 1.4% | 136.1 USD | 105.4 USD | -0.72 | -37.82 | 56.5M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 94.81 USD | -11.5% | 138.1 USD | 105.3 USD | -0.55 | -37.61 | 78.4M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 107.1 USD | -5.1% | 140.2 USD | 105.2 USD | -0.55 | -31.55 | 52.4M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 112.8 USD | -5.9% | 141.6 USD | 105.0 USD | -0.43 | -27.54 | 56.8M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 119.9 USD | -2.5% | 143.0 USD | 104.9 USD | -0.39 | -22.79 | 53.1M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 123.1 USD | -4.4% | 144.4 USD | 104.6 USD | -0.43 | -22.99 | 37.9M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 128.8 USD | -2.0% | 146.0 USD | 104.3 USD | -0.58 | -18.44 | 52.9M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 131.4 USD | -5.3% | 147.4 USD | 104.0 USD | -0.76 | -16.34 | 103.6M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 138.8 USD | 6.5% | 148.6 USD | 103.7 USD | -0.83 | -11.66 | 53.0M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 130.3 USD | -3.2% | 149.2 USD | 103.3 USD | -0.98 | -15.34 | 32.6M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 134.6 USD | -3.7% | 151.1 USD | 102.9 USD | -1.01 | -12.03 | 48.3M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.