Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
BABA options intelligence
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 13 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 18:30 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
BABA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
4.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.40
Call-side skew
Trend fit
10
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+5.0%
RS -18.9
Expected move
4.9%
Put-call volume
0.40
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.48
Max pain
123.00
Underlying
128.41
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
1643
Research Brief
BABA has a bullish chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 122.17–134.65; The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 123.00. The most active strike by current volume is 123.00.
Priced range122.17–134.65
Call concentration135.00
Put concentration123.00
Max pain reference123.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 122.17 to 134.65. Max pain at 123.00 sits inside that range, 4.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
122.17128.41 ± 6.24134.65
Confirmation level
A close beyond 134.65 or below 122.17 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 46/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure46 × 42%
+19.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement10 × 26%
+2.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility53 × 10%
+5.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 123.00. The most active strike by current volume is 123.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5688
117.00-8.9%
358
1708
118.00-8.1%
643
3046
119.00-7.3%
295
2541
120.00-6.5%
377
1950
122.00-5.0%
3167
6209
123.00-4.2%
409
1413
125.00-2.7%
2461
373
126.00-1.9%
954
581
127.00-1.1%
3375
1273
128.00-0.3%
2588
630
129.000.5%
2020
679
130.001.2%
4476
153
132.002.8%
3687
175
133.003.6%
2862
32
135.005.1%
6723
16
137.006.7%
4652
5
140.009.0%
3985
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$110.0MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak130.00+$21.1M
Negative peak110.00-$3.7M
Nearest balance124.06Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
118.00-8.1%
-$1.4M
119.00-7.3%
-$68,052
120.00-6.5%
-$3.3M
121.00-5.8%
-$451,476
122.00-5.0%
+$187,681
123.00-4.2%
-$459,210
124.00-3.4%
-$241,640
125.00-2.7%
+$3.7M
126.00-1.9%
+$828,336
127.00-1.1%
+$6.8M
128.00-0.3%
+$3.8M
129.000.5%
+$4.7M
130.001.2%
+$21.1M
131.002.0%
+$1.6M
132.002.8%
+$4.2M
133.003.6%
+$2.3M
134.004.4%
+$449,007
135.005.1%
+$9.1M
136.005.9%
+$331,144
137.006.7%
+$1.2M
138.007.5%
+$158,135
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.48
14 Aug
1d
0.55
21 Aug
8d
0.50
28 Aug
15d
0.49
4 Sep
22d
0.47
11 Sep
29d
0.45
18 Sep
36d
0.46
25 Sep
43d
0.43
16 Oct
64d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
103
105
108
110
113
115
117
120
122
125
127
129
132
134
137
139
141
144
146
149
153
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 6 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing50%
Average expiry move5.7%
6 Aug
Bullish · 34
5.0% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 34
5.0% through expiry
6.0% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 36
5.0% through expiry
6.0% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 39
5.0% through expiry
5.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 37
5.0% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 37
9.0% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 13 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1643 / 1643
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $97.1M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+46
1W price+5.0%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split
C 62% / P 38%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
10/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 3102 contracts traded, $21.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$21.6M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 13111 contracts traded, $17.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$17.7M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 3701 contracts traded, $15.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$15.9M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 11613 contracts traded, $10.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$10.3M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 8058 contracts traded, $6.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$6.9M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 12 completed sessions
Volume rank58th
Volume/OI rank50th
IV rank92th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close128.41
1W+5.0%
RS-18.9
Fair value+20.8%
Options pressure46
Speculation41
Volatility53
Trend fit10
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.5% · 12 sessions
75th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.43 · 12 sessions
92th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.40 · 12 sessions
67th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 12 sessions
50th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
6 Aug 15:00
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 5.8%
6 Aug 16:30
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 4.0%
6 Aug 18:00
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 4.0%
6 Aug 18:59
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 4.1%
7 Aug 14:00
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 1.6%
7 Aug 14:58
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 4.7%
7 Aug 16:20
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 4.8%
7 Aug 17:50
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 5.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike80.00
Calls · V 146 · OI 48
Puts · V 1 · OI 15
Strike85.00
Calls · V 180 · OI 72
Puts · V 10 · OI 57
Strike87.00
Calls · V 34 · OI 14
Puts · V 2 · OI 13
Strike88.00
Calls · V 504 · OI 17
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike89.00
Calls · V 505 · OI 115
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike90.00
Calls · V 127 · OI 124
Puts · V 3 · OI 52
Strike91.00
Calls · V 440 · OI 142
Puts · V 4 · OI 11
Strike92.00
Calls · V 333 · OI 180
Puts · V 4 · OI 4
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.27
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts135
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.38
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts111
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.38
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts89
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.24
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts77
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.35
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.30
Skew-0.29
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.05
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.05
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBABA280121P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI200
IV0.66
ContractBABA271217P00025000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI200
IV0.68
ContractBABA280616P00195000
SidePut
Expiry16 Jun 2028
Strike195.00
Volume-
OI120
IV0.20
ContractBABA260911P00100000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume-
OI68
IV0.48
ContractBABA260904C00175000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike175.00
Volume-
OI64
IV0.98
ContractBABA270219P00165000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI45
IV0.38
ContractBABA260904P00090000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI44
IV0.77
ContractBABA270219C00080000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI32
IV0.58
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.