AEC1 GER Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

American Express Company · Financial Services · Credit Services

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Latest close 292.5 EUR
3.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 54.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a -5.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.

Setup score 44 out of 100
Latest Close 292.5 EUR 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.0% latest completed week
4W Return -5.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 9.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 48.1% 25 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.9x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.50% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.0% Latest completed week; four-week move -5.2%. Indicator stack 26/67 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.50% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 53/100 21 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 54.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a -5.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.3812-week average 0.15

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership5/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.38Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -5.2% over four weeks, 9.6% over 12 weeks, and 16.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.0%
4W-5.2%
12W9.6%
26W1.0%
52W16.8%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year25
Trend breadth48.1%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.88Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change19.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-3.61Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-311.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 67% Model confidence 67%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength72/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Value58/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 43; rank 1 is best.
Quality57/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 44; rank 1 is best.
Momentum59/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 42; rank 1 is best.
Growth62/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 39; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
16.9x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
7.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
19.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
3.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 21 relevant articles.

6 positive · 12 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-11.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.9%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-8.8%Week of 24 Jul.
Latest week+3.0%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses4
Recent vol3.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.8% / -3.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape43/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 43/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis33/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 5/12.

Activity pressure 0.38; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.50%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.50% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors61/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 11 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 21 relevant articles.

General American Investors Files Certified Shareholder Report for Period Ended June 30, 2026 Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026292.5 EUR3.0%282.6 EUR241.0 EUR0.88-3.61873Off
24 Jul 2026284.0 EUR-8.8%283.3 EUR240.1 EUR1.00-4.331.5KOff
17 Jul 2026311.5 EUR2.2%284.6 EUR239.2 EUR1.096.16669Off
10 Jul 2026304.8 EUR-1.2%284.8 EUR238.1 EUR0.963.201.3KOff
3 Jul 2026308.5 EUR2.8%285.4 EUR237.1 EUR0.731.71567Off
26 Jun 2026300.0 EUR2.1%285.7 EUR236.1 EUR0.483.41211Off
19 Jun 2026293.7 EUR5.1%286.2 EUR235.2 EUR0.290.13646Off
12 Jun 2026279.4 EUR4.5%286.5 EUR234.2 EUR0.12-3.26270Off
5 Jun 2026267.5 EUR-1.8%287.4 EUR233.4 EUR-0.04-7.75247Off
29 May 2026272.3 EUR1.3%288.9 EUR232.7 EUR-0.06-7.36763Off
22 May 2026268.9 EUR-0.3%290.2 EUR231.9 EUR-0.15-7.701.2KOff
15 May 2026269.8 EUR1.1%291.5 EUR231.1 EUR-0.30-3.71703Off
8 May 2026266.8 EUR-2.4%292.2 EUR230.2 EUR-0.36-6.293.3KOff
1 May 2026273.4 EUR2.3%292.4 EUR229.4 EUR-0.60-3.731.1KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.