- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.34% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
CMC
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Commercial Metals Company · Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Latest close
68.95 USD
3.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 55.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.8%, after a -0.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 37/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 78d.
Setup score
45
out of 100
Latest Close
68.95 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
3.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
-0.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
0.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
71.2%
37 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.9x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
3.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move -0.0%.
Indicator stack
39/36
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.34%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
37/100 conviction; expected move 8.8%.
News sentiment
56/100
52 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
78d
Next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 55.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.8%, after a -0.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5612-week average 0.51
12-week confirmation
Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.56Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -0.0% over four weeks, 0.4% over 12 weeks, and 30.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year37
Trend breadth71.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.20Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-131.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.57Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-171.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Aug 2025
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 100%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength84/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Value85/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Quality26/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 75; rank 1 is best.
Momentum77/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 24; rank 1 is best.
Growth25/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework65/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 12.8x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.9x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.1x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 13.7% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 18.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 9.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 16.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 9.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 15.2% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 27.0% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 1.7% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 2.8% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
CMC shows bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.25, expected move of 8.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction37/100
Expected move8.8%
Put/call volume0.25
Insider activity16 / 1
16 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment56/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.
20 positive · 29 neutral · 3 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings78dNext report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-18.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.0%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-11.1%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+3.8%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses7
Recent vol4.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.6% / -3.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.7%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS56.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Metal Fabrication
4-week rank8 / 17
Group average-1.7%
Trend breadth35.3%
Trend35.3%active weekly trend signals
MD64.7%positive activity pressure
RS41.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape44/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 44/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis49/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 7/12.
Activity pressure 0.56; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.34%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.34% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors67/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 25; Small Cap Core rank 18 SVQF65/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 359.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options40/100CMC shows bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.25, expected move of 8.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 8.8% Sentiment56/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.
Commercial Metals Pick of the Week at Smart Insider Following CEO Share Purchase Insiders16 / 116 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings78dNext report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Research flow3 items0 recent research articles and 3 Market Watch posts are available.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 68.95 USD | 3.8% | 70.02 USD | 55.48 USD | -0.20 | -2.57 | 5.3M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 66.41 USD | 6.0% | 70.09 USD | 55.38 USD | 0.04 | -6.53 | 6.5M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 62.64 USD | 1.8% | 70.18 USD | 55.30 USD | 0.26 | -13.11 | 5.9M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 61.53 USD | -10.8% | 70.43 USD | 55.24 USD | 0.54 | -13.49 | 7.9M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 68.98 USD | -4.4% | 70.59 USD | 55.17 USD | 0.63 | -0.95 | 10.9M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 72.13 USD | -6.9% | 70.41 USD | 55.06 USD | 0.53 | 1.39 | 5.8M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 77.51 USD | 4.9% | 69.97 USD | 54.91 USD | 0.29 | 10.30 | 5.0M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 73.91 USD | -2.8% | 69.34 USD | 54.71 USD | -0.01 | 6.28 | 5.4M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 76.05 USD | 5.8% | 68.82 USD | 54.52 USD | -0.24 | 6.99 | 4.5M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 71.90 USD | 0.9% | 68.26 USD | 54.31 USD | -0.51 | 3.07 | 4.2M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 71.25 USD | 0.4% | 67.88 USD | 54.13 USD | -0.63 | 3.39 | 5.0M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 70.96 USD | 3.3% | 67.40 USD | 53.95 USD | -0.77 | 3.52 | 4.6M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 68.66 USD | -0.8% | 66.92 USD | 53.77 USD | -0.86 | 2.84 | 4.0M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 69.18 USD | 4.5% | 66.57 USD | 53.60 USD | -0.92 | 4.88 | 4.3M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.