ALV GER Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Allianz SE · Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

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Latest close 432.5 EUR
1.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 97.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.3%, after a 3.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.

Setup score 76 out of 100
Latest Close 432.5 EUR 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 1.3% latest completed week
4W Return 3.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 17.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 86.5% 45 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 15-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.3% Latest completed week; four-week move 3.0%. Indicator stack 93/80 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 59.70% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 56/100 18 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 97.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.3%, after a 3.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9512-week average 0.80

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.95Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 3.0% over four weeks, 17.2% over 12 weeks, and 35.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 15 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.3%
4W3.0%
12W17.2%
26W21.7%
52W35.4%
Active trend streak15 weeks
Active weeks in one year45
Trend breadth86.5%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.49Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change37.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership12.69Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change19.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 85% Model confidence 81%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength95/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Value78/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Quality78/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Momentum76/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Growth30/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
13.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.1x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
9.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
17.8%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
11.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
21.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
16.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-1.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
10.1%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
3.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
4.0%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 18 relevant articles.

3 positive · 15 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility1.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher19 of 267 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.8%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-9.1%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+1.3%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains2
Modest gains17
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses2
Recent vol1.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.4% / -2.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape78/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 78/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis85/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.95; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 59.70%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 59.70% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors81/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 26 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 18 relevant articles.

HSBC to Divest Singapore Insurance Unit to Allianz for $2.09B Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026432.5 EUR1.3%375.0 EUR292.0 EUR1.4912.692.4MOn
24 Jul 2026427.1 EUR1.0%373.0 EUR290.4 EUR1.5014.112.3MOn
17 Jul 2026422.9 EUR0.3%371.2 EUR288.9 EUR1.4114.732.3MOn
10 Jul 2026421.6 EUR0.4%369.5 EUR287.4 EUR1.2913.812.3MOn
3 Jul 2026419.8 EUR2.9%367.6 EUR285.9 EUR1.0810.652.7MOn
26 Jun 2026407.9 EUR1.9%365.3 EUR284.3 EUR0.7212.72447.6KOn
19 Jun 2026400.4 EUR3.6%363.5 EUR282.9 EUR0.689.661.7MOn
12 Jun 2026386.4 EUR3.6%361.7 EUR281.5 EUR0.647.63495.3KOn
5 Jun 2026372.8 EUR-2.3%360.6 EUR280.2 EUR0.613.57381.3KOn
29 May 2026381.6 EUR-1.0%359.4 EUR278.9 EUR0.754.704.3MOn
22 May 2026385.6 EUR3.0%357.7 EUR277.7 EUR0.606.902.8MOn
15 May 2026374.5 EUR1.5%356.1 EUR276.4 EUR0.438.103.5MOn
8 May 2026369.1 EUR-0.7%354.7 EUR275.1 EUR0.325.064.3MOn
1 May 2026371.9 EUR0.3%354.1 EUR274.0 EUR0.056.112.4MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.