- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 63.74% based on similar historical setup states.
MWA
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Mueller Water Products · Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Latest close
25.03 USD
-1.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 29.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.7%, after a -6.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 47/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 2d.
Setup score
36
out of 100
Latest Close
25.03 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-1.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
-6.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-8.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
44.2%
23 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-1.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move -6.3%.
Indicator stack
24/26
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 63.74%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
47/100 conviction; expected move 7.2%.
News sentiment
55/100
59 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
2d
Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 29.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.7%, after a -6.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0912-week average 0.38
12-week confirmation
Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.09Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -6.3% over four weeks, -8.4% over 12 weeks, and 0.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year23
Trend breadth44.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.05Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-70.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-11.22Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-115.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength33/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
Value30/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Quality80/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Momentum29/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Growth89/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 12; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework76/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 18.9x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.7x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.6x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 6.5% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 37.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 19.9% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 17.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 19.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 6.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 44.1% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -13.5% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 1.4% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
MWA shows bullish options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 7.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction47/100
Expected move7.2%
Put/call volume0.00
Insider activity2 / 2
2 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.
18 positive · 39 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move7.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-19.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.8%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-6.7%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-1.7%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses14
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -2.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.7%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS56.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Specialty Industrial Machinery
4-week rank42 / 72
Group average-7.6%
Trend breadth45.8%
Trend45.8%active weekly trend signals
MD54.2%positive activity pressure
RS40.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape36/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 36/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis14/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.09; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 63.74%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 63.74% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors43/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 37; Small Cap Core rank 76 SVQF76/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 243.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options45/100MWA shows bullish options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 7.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 7.2% Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.
MWA|Mueller Water Products Inc|Price:24.945|Chg%:-0.225 Insiders2 / 22 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 25.03 USD | -1.7% | 26.84 USD | 21.42 USD | -1.05 | -11.22 | 4.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 25.46 USD | 2.2% | 26.83 USD | 21.36 USD | -0.73 | -10.48 | 6.4M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 24.92 USD | -0.2% | 26.79 USD | 21.30 USD | -0.66 | -13.98 | 5.7M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 24.97 USD | -6.5% | 26.79 USD | 21.24 USD | -0.63 | -12.95 | 4.5M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 26.70 USD | 2.2% | 26.77 USD | 21.18 USD | -0.62 | -5.20 | 8.5M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 26.13 USD | 1.2% | 26.69 USD | 21.11 USD | -0.90 | -9.54 | 5.9M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 25.82 USD | 1.9% | 26.60 USD | 21.03 USD | -0.99 | -9.98 | 5.4M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 25.33 USD | 0.5% | 26.51 USD | 20.96 USD | -1.01 | -11.36 | 6.4M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 25.21 USD | -0.4% | 26.46 USD | 20.90 USD | -0.95 | -14.28 | 5.1M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 25.31 USD | -0.8% | 26.46 USD | 20.82 USD | -0.81 | -13.05 | 5.9M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 25.51 USD | -3.0% | 26.48 USD | 20.75 USD | -0.52 | -11.96 | 5.9M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 26.30 USD | -3.7% | 26.46 USD | 20.67 USD | -0.14 | -9.43 | 6.1M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 27.32 USD | -2.8% | 26.41 USD | 20.58 USD | 0.15 | -4.07 | 4.8M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 28.09 USD | -3.1% | 26.36 USD | 20.50 USD | 0.26 | -0.90 | 8.3M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.