AJG NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Arthur J Gallagher & Co · Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

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Latest close 249.4 USD
0.7% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 10.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 49.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.7%, after a -1.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 39/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.

Setup score 41 out of 100
Latest Close 249.4 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 0.7% latest completed week
4W Return -1.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 25.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 0.0% 0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.9x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.7% Latest completed week; four-week move -1.2%. Indicator stack 0/69 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Recent Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 39/100 conviction; expected move 6.1%. News sentiment 55/100 62 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 30 Jul Latest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 10.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 49.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.7%, after a -1.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.3912-week average 0.22

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.39Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -1.2% over four weeks, 25.8% over 12 weeks, and -11.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.7%
4W-1.2%
12W25.8%
26W0.7%
52W-11.2%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.10Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-6.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-7.38Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change17.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength11/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Value12/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality75/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Momentum15/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Growth78/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework53/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
39.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
4.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
16.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
3.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
66.0%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
17.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
14.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
9.0%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
24.5%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
3.4%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-22.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

AJG shows mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.51, expected move of 6.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction39/100
Expected move6.1%
Put/call volume1.51
Pressure-15
Speculation23
Volatility48
Trend agreement89
Open options detail
Insider activity14 / 6

14 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 62 relevant articles.

24 positive · 35 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings30 JulLatest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
Options expected move6.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-19.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+11.7%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-13.7%Week of 13 Feb.
Latest week+0.7%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains10
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.0% / -3.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape35/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis31/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.39; No reversal markers Factors28/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 75 SVQF53/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 478.0 of 1010 Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options58/100

AJG shows mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.51, expected move of 6.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 6.1% Sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 62 relevant articles.

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Stock Drops As Revenue Jumps But Margins Thin Insiders14 / 6

14 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings30 Jul

Latest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026249.4 USD0.7%225.7 USD262.2 USD1.10-7.387.9MOff
24 Jul 2026247.8 USD-2.4%225.8 USD262.0 USD1.18-7.595.6MOff
17 Jul 2026253.9 USD0.3%226.2 USD261.8 USD1.32-6.647.5MOff
10 Jul 2026253.1 USD0.3%226.2 USD261.5 USD1.21-9.138.2MOff
3 Jul 2026252.4 USD11.7%226.2 USD261.2 USD1.18-8.919.0MOff
26 Jun 2026226.0 USD5.6%225.7 USD260.9 USD0.99-17.4011.3MOff
19 Jun 2026214.1 USD-2.1%226.4 USD260.9 USD0.59-24.437.4MOff
12 Jun 2026218.7 USD1.2%227.5 USD260.8 USD0.43-23.0610.1MOff
5 Jun 2026216.1 USD7.8%228.8 USD260.7 USD0.09-24.428.1MOff
29 May 2026200.5 USD-1.8%229.8 USD260.6 USD-0.22-32.516.8MOff
22 May 2026204.1 USD2.4%231.4 USD260.6 USD-0.29-31.387.6MOff
15 May 2026199.3 USD0.5%233.9 USD260.6 USD-0.43-33.3911.8MOff
8 May 2026198.2 USD-4.4%236.5 USD260.7 USD-0.50-34.569.6MOff
1 May 2026207.4 USD-3.4%239.8 USD260.7 USD-0.54-30.979.5MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.