AHLA GER Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Alibaba Group Holding Limited · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

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Latest close 105.4 EUR
6.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 31.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.0%, after a 25.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.

Setup score 35 out of 100
Latest Close 105.4 EUR 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 6.0% latest completed week
4W Return 25.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return -10.9% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 42.3% 22 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 6.0% Latest completed week; four-week move 25.0%. Indicator stack 23/56 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 58/100 14 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 31.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.0%, after a 25.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0412-week average 0.03

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.04Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 25.0% over four weeks, -10.9% over 12 weeks, and 5.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W6.0%
4W25.0%
12W-10.9%
26W-26.4%
52W5.7%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year22
Trend breadth42.3%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.07Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change93.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-17.06Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change50.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 90%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength72/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Value97/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Quality7/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Momentum30/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Growth23/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework79/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
2.3x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.2x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
3.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-11.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
39.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
5.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-5.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
3.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
2.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-18.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-165.4%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
2.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 14 relevant articles.

5 positive · 8 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher8 of 2618 weeks finished lower.
Best week+16.8%Week of 10 Jul.
Worst week-9.9%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week+6.0%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses9
Recent vol6.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.6% / -3.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape27/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis9/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.04; No reversal markers Factors51/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 17 SVQF79/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 79.5 of 372 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 14 relevant articles.

U.S. Market Close | Tech stocks provided support, with the Nasdaq rising against the broader market trend; Chinese ADRs surged, Alibaba up over 11%, Baidu and JD.com each gaining nearly 5%; SpaceX extended losses for a third consecutive session, hittin Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026105.4 EUR6.0%112.9 EUR94.23 EUR-0.07-17.06112.1KOff
24 Jul 202699.40 EUR-1.2%113.7 EUR94.08 EUR-0.33-20.17112.1KOff
17 Jul 2026100.6 EUR2.1%114.6 EUR93.99 EUR-0.49-18.40185.0KOff
10 Jul 202698.50 EUR16.8%115.5 EUR93.84 EUR-0.78-20.91263.0KOff
3 Jul 202684.30 EUR0.6%116.5 EUR93.72 EUR-0.98-34.13220.4KOff
26 Jun 202683.80 EUR-9.9%118.2 EUR93.67 EUR-0.91-31.7267.3KOff
19 Jun 202693.00 EUR-3.8%119.9 EUR93.59 EUR-0.74-25.359.6KOff
12 Jun 202696.70 EUR-8.0%121.2 EUR93.46 EUR-0.45-21.4131.7KOff
5 Jun 2026105.1 EUR-0.6%122.5 EUR93.35 EUR-0.28-15.0918.0KOff
29 May 2026105.7 EUR-4.8%123.7 EUR93.15 EUR-0.33-15.76150.3KOff
22 May 2026111.0 EUR-1.9%125.0 EUR92.95 EUR-0.52-10.68218.3KOff
15 May 2026113.2 EUR-4.3%126.3 EUR92.69 EUR-0.81-5.32302.6KOff
8 May 2026118.4 EUR6.2%127.2 EUR92.44 EUR-0.91-2.54130.9KOff
1 May 2026111.4 EUR-2.4%127.9 EUR92.15 EUR-1.05-7.9869.9KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.