Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
487.74
Total Return
387.74%
CAGR
57.51% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+35.40%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.70 Sortino 5.25
Current Holdings
1105
Transactions
10675 Avg 3060.4/yr · 255.0/mo · 58.9/wk
Exit Mix
4785 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.5% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
47
ABT NYSE · Abbott Laboratories
95.40 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ACET NASDAQ · Adicet Bio Inc
9.00 MD 0.90 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AKBA NASDAQ · Akebia Ther
1.24 MD 0.04 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALDX NASDAQ · Aldeyra The
2.27 MD 0.20 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALIT NYSE · Alight Inc
14.26 MD 0.88 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ANGI NASDAQ · ANGI Homeservices Inc
6.06 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AVXL NASDAQ · Anavex Life Sciences Corp
2.76 MD 0.10 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BARK NYSE · BARK, Inc.
10.93 MD 0.02 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BILL NYSE · Bill Com Holdings Inc
40.48 MD 0.02 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BTMD NASDAQ · biote Corp
2.17 MD 0.93 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
6.97 MD 0.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CIGI NASDAQ · Colliers International Group Inc Bats
98.51 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CLRO NASDAQ · ClearOne Inc
6.48 MD 0.63 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CRAC NASDAQ · Crown Reserve Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares
10.12 MD 1.89 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DEFT NASDAQ · DeFi Technologies Inc.
0.53 MD 0.47 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DNMX NASDAQ · Dynamix Corporation III Class A Ordinary Shares
10.01 MD 1.48 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DYAI NASDAQ · Dyadic International Inc
0.94 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ELBM NASDAQ · Electra Battery Materials Corp
0.56 MD 0.28 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ESBA NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP ES
5.64 MD 0.68 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
EVO NASDAQ · Evotec SE ADR
2.90 MD 0.20 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
EVTC NYSE · Evertec Inc
29.63 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
FISK NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP 250
5.61 MD 0.63 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
FOUR NYSE · Shift4 Payments Inc
51.35 MD 0.87 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GHI NYSE · Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP
5.96 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIS NYSE · General Mills Inc
37.57 MD 0.41 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HELP NASDAQ · Cybin Inc. Common Stock
6.24 MD 0.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
INCR NASDAQ · InterCure Ltd.
1.09 MD 1.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
KNSL NYSE · Kinsale Capital Group Inc
354.85 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAB NASDAQ · Standard Biotools Inc
0.91 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LZ NASDAQ · LegalZoom.com Inc
6.92 MD 0.38 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MRSH NYSE · Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
178.54 MD 0.32 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MSTR NASDAQ · MicroStrategy Incorporated
100.77 MD 0.01 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
NKE NYSE · Nike Inc
44.09 MD 0.29 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OI NYSE · O-I Glass Inc
9.79 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OWLT NYSE · Owlet Inc
5.76 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OXBR NASDAQ · Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd
1.28 MD 1.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PGY NASDAQ · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
17.79 MD 1.04 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
REAX NASDAQ · Real Brokerage Inc
2.17 MD 0.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SLNG NASDAQ · Stabilis Solutions Inc
4.19 MD 0.43 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SRFM NYSE · Surf Air Mobility Inc.
1.04 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TDWD NASDAQ · Tailwind 2.0 Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Shares
10.06 MD 1.64 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
UTZ NYSE · Utz Brands Inc
8.27 MD 0.58 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WAY NASDAQ · Waystar Holding Corp. Common Stock
23.46 MD 0.10 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WING NASDAQ · Wingstop Inc
177.99 MD 0.22 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
YSG NYSE · Yatsen Holding
3.47 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ZBH NYSE · Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc
87.47 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ZS NASDAQ · Zscaler Inc
147.33 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
22
ABCL NASDAQ · Abcellera Biologics Inc
8.11 Reversal Risk Warning · 137.83%
ABX NYSE · Abacus Global Management, Inc.
11.86 Reversal Risk Warning · 89.60%
AIRT NASDAQ · Air T Inc
28.87 Reversal Risk Warning · 60.30%
ALAR NASDAQ · Alarum Technologies Ltd.
6.35 20% entry drawdown · -34.06%
ALGT NASDAQ · Allegiant Travel Company
118.67 Reversal Risk Warning · 113.01%
ASTL NASDAQ · Algoma Steel Group Inc
3.77 20% entry drawdown · -20.46%
BGDE NASDAQ · Big Digital Energy, Inc.
7.45 20% entry drawdown · -30.18%
ENVX NASDAQ · Enovix Corp
5.36 20% entry drawdown · -20.83%
FA NASDAQ · First Advantage Corp
20.53 Reversal Risk Warning · 58.29%
GCBC NASDAQ · Greene County Bancorp Inc
34.66 Reversal Risk Warning · 41.97%
ILMN NASDAQ · Illumina Inc
188.68 Reversal Risk Warning · 117.05%
LFVN NASDAQ · Lifevantage Corporation
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -20.55%
MB NASDAQ · MasterBeef Group Ordinary Shares
4.51 20% entry drawdown · -26.31%
MOVE NASDAQ · Movano Inc
17.37 20% entry drawdown · -24.12%
NEUP NASDAQ · Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc
3.38 20% entry drawdown · -32.94%
OPTU NYSE · Optimum Communications, Inc.
1.16 20% entry drawdown · -30.12%
RDZN NASDAQ · Roadzen Inc.
1.34 20% entry drawdown · -25.56%
SMCI NASDAQ · Super Micro Computer Inc
27.22 20% entry drawdown · -23.04%
TTRX NASDAQ · Turn Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
7.12 Reversal Risk Warning · 38.79%
USIO NASDAQ · Usio Inc
2.48 Reversal Risk Warning · 63.16%
VGAS NASDAQ · Verde Clean Fuels Inc.
1.00 20% entry drawdown · -34.21%
WXM NASDAQ · WF International Limited Ordinary Shares
4.29 20% entry drawdown · -23.38%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 1-30 of 1105 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
AAP NYSE · Advance Auto Parts Inc
30 May 202547.01
61.53
30.87%
Buy
0.27
-
-
ABAT NASDAQ · American Battery Technology Company Common Stock
18 Jul 20252.40
2.81
17.08%
Buy
1.26
-
-
ABEO NASDAQ · Abeona Therapeutics Inc
16 Aug 20245.00
6.40
28.00%
Buy
0.07
-
-
ABG NYSE · Asbury Automotive Group Inc
19 Jun 2026197.05
205.40
4.24%
Buy
0.02
-
-
ABM NYSE · ABM Industries Incorporated
12 Jun 202645.63
44.27
-2.98%
Buy
0.32
-
-
ABOS NASDAQ · Acumen Pharmaceuticals Inc
18 Jul 20251.50
2.74
82.67%
Buy
1.43
-
-
ABT NYSE · Abbott Laboratories
3 Jul 202695.40
95.40
New Entry week
Buy
0.06
-
-
ABVC NASDAQ · ABVC Biopharma Inc
9 May 20251.21
1.80
48.76%
Buy
1.62
-
-
ACAD NASDAQ · ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc
12 Jul 202417.77
25.97
46.15%
Buy
0.30
-
-
ACB NASDAQ · Aurora Cannabis Inc
15 May 20263.32
2.84
-14.46%
Buy
0.04
-
-
ACDC NASDAQ · ProFrac Holding Corp.
23 Jan 20265.05
5.15
1.98%
Buy
0.44
-
-
ACET NASDAQ · Adicet Bio Inc
3 Jul 20269.00
9.00
New Entry week
Buy
0.90
-
-
ACHC NASDAQ · Acadia Healthcare Company Inc
13 Feb 202616.77
31.91
90.28%
Buy
0.08
-
-
ACIU NASDAQ · AC Immune Ltd
20 Jun 20251.88
2.51
33.51%
Buy
0.25
-
-
ACOG NASDAQ · Alpha Cognition Inc
27 Feb 20266.00
7.89
31.50%
Buy
0.23
-
-
ACRE NYSE · Ares Commercial Real Estate
30 May 20254.07
4.52
11.14%
Buy
0.36
-
-
ACRS NASDAQ · Aclaris Therapeutics Inc
31 Oct 20252.52
5.56
120.63%
Buy
1.28
-
-
ACTG NASDAQ · Acacia Research Corporation
30 May 20253.73
4.54
21.72%
Buy
0.35
-
-
ACVA NYSE · ACV Auctions Inc.
15 May 20265.92
7.30
23.31%
Buy
0.29
-
-
ADNT NYSE · Adient PLC
16 May 202515.82
18.76
18.58%
Buy
0.17
-
-
ADP NASDAQ · Automatic Data Processing Inc
22 May 2026223.63
242.27
8.34%
Buy
0.48
-
-
ADV NASDAQ · Advantage Solutions Inc
20 Mar 202619.23
38.86
102.13%
Buy
0.17
-
-
ADVB NASDAQ · Advanced Biomed Inc. Common Stock
29 May 20265.01
4.99
-0.40%
Buy
1.68
-
-
ADXN NASDAQ · Addex Therapeutics Ltd
15 May 20266.81
5.79
-14.98%
Buy
0.03
-
-
AEBI NASDAQ · Aebi Schmidt Holding AG - Common Stock
26 Jun 202613.08
12.09
-7.57%
Buy
0.22
-
-
AES NYSE · The AES Corporation
14 Mar 202511.51
14.58
26.71%
Buy
0.19
-
-
AESI NYSE · Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
2 Jan 20269.72
14.47
48.87%
Buy
0.12
-
-
AFCG NASDAQ · AFC Gamma Inc
27 Mar 20262.61
3.13
19.76%
Buy
0.81
-
-
AFYA NASDAQ · Afya Ltd
17 Oct 202514.28
15.27
6.92%
Buy
0.12
-
-
AGL NYSE · agilon health Inc
8 May 202654.23
111.01
104.70%
Buy
1.10
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 31-60 of 10675
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
3 Jul 2026
Entry
FISK NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP 250
5.61
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.63
3 Jul 2026
Entry
FOUR NYSE · Shift4 Payments Inc
51.35
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.87
3 Jul 2026
Exit
GCBC NASDAQ · Greene County Bancorp Inc
34.66
Reversal Risk Warning
41.97%
Entry 4 Jul 2025 24.41
3 Jul 2026
Entry
GHI NYSE · Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP
5.96
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.27
3 Jul 2026
Entry
GIS NYSE · General Mills Inc
37.57
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.41
3 Jul 2026
Entry
HELP NASDAQ · Cybin Inc. Common Stock
6.24
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.51
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ILMN NASDAQ · Illumina Inc
188.68
Reversal Risk Warning
117.05%
Entry 13 Jun 2025 86.93
3 Jul 2026
Entry
INCR NASDAQ · InterCure Ltd.
1.09
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.06
3 Jul 2026
Entry
KNSL NYSE · Kinsale Capital Group Inc
354.85
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.09
3 Jul 2026
Entry
LAB NASDAQ · Standard Biotools Inc
0.91
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.26
3 Jul 2026
Exit
LFVN NASDAQ · Lifevantage Corporation
6.22
20% entry drawdown
-20.55%
Entry 29 May 2026 7.83
3 Jul 2026
Entry
LZ NASDAQ · LegalZoom.com Inc
6.92
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.38
3 Jul 2026
Exit
MB NASDAQ · MasterBeef Group Ordinary Shares
4.51
20% entry drawdown
-26.31%
Entry 17 Apr 2026 6.12
3 Jul 2026
Exit
MOVE NASDAQ · Movano Inc
17.37
20% entry drawdown
-24.12%
Entry 22 May 2026 22.89
3 Jul 2026
Entry
MRSH NYSE · Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
178.54
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.32
3 Jul 2026
Entry
MSTR NASDAQ · MicroStrategy Incorporated
100.77
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.01
3 Jul 2026
Exit
NEUP NASDAQ · Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc
3.38
20% entry drawdown
-32.94%
Entry 24 Apr 2026 5.04
3 Jul 2026
Entry
NKE NYSE · Nike Inc
44.09
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.29
3 Jul 2026
Entry
OI NYSE · O-I Glass Inc
9.79
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.11
3 Jul 2026
Exit
OPTU NYSE · Optimum Communications, Inc.
1.16
20% entry drawdown
-30.12%
Entry 26 Jun 2026 1.66
3 Jul 2026
Entry
OWLT NYSE · Owlet Inc
5.76
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.26
3 Jul 2026
Entry
OXBR NASDAQ · Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd
1.28
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.07
3 Jul 2026
Entry
PGY NASDAQ · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
17.79
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.04
3 Jul 2026
Exit
RDZN NASDAQ · Roadzen Inc.
1.34
20% entry drawdown
-25.56%
Entry 8 May 2026 1.80
3 Jul 2026
Entry
REAX NASDAQ · Real Brokerage Inc
2.17
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.08
3 Jul 2026
Entry
SLNG NASDAQ · Stabilis Solutions Inc
4.19
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.43
3 Jul 2026
Exit
SMCI NASDAQ · Super Micro Computer Inc
27.22
20% entry drawdown
-23.04%
Entry 8 May 2026 35.37
3 Jul 2026
Entry
SRFM NYSE · Surf Air Mobility Inc.
1.04
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.50
3 Jul 2026
Entry
TDWD NASDAQ · Tailwind 2.0 Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Shares
10.06
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.64
3 Jul 2026
Exit
TTRX NASDAQ · Turn Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
7.12
Reversal Risk Warning
38.79%
Entry 22 May 2026 5.13