Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
483.76
Total Return
383.76%
CAGR
56.75% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.30%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.67 Sortino 5.20
Current Holdings
1117
Transactions
10719 Avg 3056.2/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4801 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.4% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
28
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19 MD 0.14 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.44 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11 MD 1.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
16
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54 20% entry drawdown · -64.86%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78 Reversal Risk Warning · 52.99%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 991-1020 of 1117 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
TRUP NASDAQ · Trupanion Inc
19 Jun 202623.54
25.83
9.73%
Buy
0.11
-
-
TSQ NYSE · Townsquare Media Inc
23 Jan 20265.65
6.80
20.27%
Buy
0.17
-
-
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
10 Jul 202630.99
30.99
New Entry week
Buy
0.06
-
-
TULP NASDAQ · Bloomia Holdings, Inc.
22 Nov 20244.13
3.50
-15.25%
Buy
0.21
-
-
TUSK NASDAQ · Mammoth Energy Services Inc
16 Jan 20262.29
2.80
22.27%
Buy
0.35
-
-
TV NYSE · Grupo Televisa SAB ADR
21 Feb 20251.85
2.77
49.57%
Buy
0.21
-
-
TVA NASDAQ · Texas Ventures Acquisition III Corp
12 Jun 202610.44
10.56
1.15%
Buy
0.06
-
-
TVAI NASDAQ · Thayer Ventures Acquisition Corporation II Class A Ordinary Shares
23 Jan 202610.20
10.33
1.27%
Buy
1.95
-
-
TWI NYSE · Titan International Inc
19 Dec 20257.85
7.34
-6.50%
Buy
0.14
-
-
TXG NASDAQ · 10X Genomics Inc
25 Jul 202514.11
42.73
202.83%
Buy
1.16
-
-
TXMD NASDAQ · TherapeuticsMD Inc
18 Apr 20251.01
2.00
98.02%
Buy
0.25
-
-
TXO NYSE · MorningStar Partners, L.P.
13 Feb 202611.98
13.05
8.93%
Buy
0.18
-
-
TYL NYSE · Tyler Technologies Inc
1 May 2026335.50
309.48
-7.76%
Buy
0.13
-
-
TZOO NASDAQ · Travelzoo
24 Apr 20269.70
10.92
12.58%
Buy
1.12
-
-
UA NYSE · Under Armour Inc C
2 Jan 20265.07
6.61
30.37%
Buy
0.43
-
-
UAA NYSE · Under Armour Inc A
2 Jan 20265.29
6.79
28.36%
Buy
0.54
-
-
UEIC NASDAQ · Universal Electronics Inc
16 Jan 20263.96
4.66
17.68%
Buy
0.27
-
-
UFI NYSE · Unifi Inc
23 Jan 20263.87
5.73
48.06%
Buy
0.21
-
-
UG NASDAQ · United-Guardian Inc
30 Jan 20266.96
7.17
2.99%
Buy
0.32
-
-
UHAL NYSE · U-Haul Holding Company
24 Apr 202652.59
67.35
28.07%
Buy
0.01
-
-
UIS NYSE · Unisys Corporation
1 May 20262.66
4.06
52.63%
Buy
0.41
-
-
ULBI NASDAQ · Ultralife Corporation
30 Jan 20266.38
5.85
-8.31%
Buy
0.30
-
-
UNCY NASDAQ · Unicycive Therapeutics Inc
24 Oct 20255.13
5.21
1.56%
Buy
0.28
-
-
UNH NYSE · UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
29 Aug 2025301.69
424.62
40.75%
Buy
0.23
-
-
UPS NYSE · United Parcel Service Inc
15 Aug 202582.73
112.47
35.94%
Buy
0.22
-
-
UPST NASDAQ · Upstart Holdings Inc
29 May 202633.79
32.74
-3.11%
Buy
0.55
-
-
USNA NYSE · USANA Health Sciences Inc
22 May 202618.74
21.98
17.29%
Buy
0.04
-
-
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
10 Jul 202672.54
72.54
New Entry week
Buy
0.07
-
-
UTMD NASDAQ · Utah Medical Products Inc
13 Jun 202553.78
67.96
26.36%
Buy
0.14
-
-
UTSI NASDAQ · UTStarcom Holdings Corp
9 Jan 20262.45
2.49
1.63%
Buy
0.26
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 61-90 of 10719
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
3 Jul 2026
Entry
BTMD NASDAQ · biote Corp
2.17
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.93
3 Jul 2026
Entry
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
6.97
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.51
3 Jul 2026
Entry
CIGI NASDAQ · Colliers International Group Inc Bats
98.51
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.06
3 Jul 2026
Entry
CLRO NASDAQ · ClearOne Inc
6.48
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.65
3 Jul 2026
Entry
CRAC NASDAQ · Crown Reserve Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares
10.12
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 2.02
3 Jul 2026
Entry
DEFT NASDAQ · DeFi Technologies Inc.
0.53
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.47
3 Jul 2026
Entry
DNMX NASDAQ · Dynamix Corporation III Class A Ordinary Shares
10.01
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.47
3 Jul 2026
Entry
DYAI NASDAQ · Dyadic International Inc
0.94
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.22
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ELBM NASDAQ · Electra Battery Materials Corp
0.56
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.28
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ENVX NASDAQ · Enovix Corp
5.36
20% entry drawdown
-20.83%
Entry 1 May 2026 6.77
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ESBA NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP ES
5.64
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.68
3 Jul 2026
Entry
EVO NASDAQ · Evotec SE ADR
2.90
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
3 Jul 2026
Entry
EVTC NYSE · Evertec Inc
29.63
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.27
3 Jul 2026
Exit
FA NASDAQ · First Advantage Corp
20.53
Reversal Risk Warning
58.29%
Entry 1 May 2026 12.97
3 Jul 2026
Entry
FISK NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP 250
5.61
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.63
3 Jul 2026
Entry
FOUR NYSE · Shift4 Payments Inc
51.35
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.87
3 Jul 2026
Exit
GCBC NASDAQ · Greene County Bancorp Inc
34.66
Reversal Risk Warning
41.97%
Entry 4 Jul 2025 24.41
3 Jul 2026
Entry
GHI NYSE · Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP
5.96
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.27
3 Jul 2026
Entry
GIS NYSE · General Mills Inc
36.95
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.29
3 Jul 2026
Entry
HELP NASDAQ · Cybin Inc. Common Stock
6.24
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.51
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ILMN NASDAQ · Illumina Inc
188.68
Reversal Risk Warning
117.05%
Entry 13 Jun 2025 86.93
3 Jul 2026
Entry
INCR NASDAQ · InterCure Ltd.
1.09
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.06
3 Jul 2026
Entry
INVZ NASDAQ · Innoviz Technologies
0.69
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.47
3 Jul 2026
Entry
LAB NASDAQ · Standard Biotools Inc
0.91
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.26
3 Jul 2026
Exit
LFVN NASDAQ · Lifevantage Corporation
6.22
20% entry drawdown
-20.55%
Entry 29 May 2026 7.83
3 Jul 2026
Entry
LZ NASDAQ · LegalZoom.com Inc
6.92
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.38
3 Jul 2026
Exit
MB NASDAQ · MasterBeef Group Ordinary Shares
4.51
20% entry drawdown
-26.31%
Entry 17 Apr 2026 6.12
3 Jul 2026
Entry
MEGL NASDAQ · Magic Empire Global Limited
1.36
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.01
3 Jul 2026
Exit
MOVE NASDAQ · Movano Inc
17.37
20% entry drawdown
-24.12%
Entry 22 May 2026 22.89
3 Jul 2026
Entry
MRP NYSE · Millrose Properties, Inc.
28.98
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.13