Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
483.76
Total Return
383.76%
CAGR
56.75% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.30%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.67 Sortino 5.20
Current Holdings
1117
Transactions
10719 Avg 3056.2/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4801 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.4% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
28
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19 MD 0.14 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.44 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11 MD 1.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
16
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54 20% entry drawdown · -64.86%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78 Reversal Risk Warning · 52.99%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 1021-1050 of 1117 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
UTZ NYSE · Utz Brands Inc
3 Jul 20268.27
7.83
-5.32%
Buy
0.58
-
-
UYSC NASDAQ · UY Scuti Acquisition Corp.
13 Mar 202610.37
10.71
3.28%
Buy
2.71
-
-
VAC NYSE · Marriot Vacations Worldwide
16 Jan 202658.62
98.31
67.70%
Buy
0.04
-
-
VALN NASDAQ · Valneva SE ADR
24 Jan 20254.90
5.05
3.06%
Buy
0.13
-
-
VALU NASDAQ · Value Line Inc
9 May 202537.98
39.93
5.13%
Buy
0.02
-
-
VANI NASDAQ · Vivani Medical Inc.
30 May 20251.26
1.36
7.94%
Buy
0.19
-
-
VC NASDAQ · Visteon Corp
16 May 202585.81
106.58
24.21%
Buy
0.47
-
-
VCEL NASDAQ · Vericel Corp Ord
31 Oct 202535.06
47.00
34.06%
Buy
0.01
-
-
VEEV NYSE · Veeva Systems Inc Class A
29 May 2026174.34
190.12
9.05%
Buy
0.39
-
-
VERU NASDAQ · Veru Inc
5 Jun 20263.40
2.78
-18.24%
Buy
0.96
-
-
VFC NYSE · VF Corporation
11 Jul 202512.07
16.77
38.96%
Buy
0.01
-
-
VHI NYSE · Valhi Inc
6 Feb 202615.34
13.58
-11.45%
Buy
1.25
-
-
VIR NASDAQ · Vir Biotechnology Inc
24 Oct 20255.98
9.96
66.56%
Buy
1.41
-
-
VIRC NASDAQ · Virco Manufacturing Corporation
27 Mar 20266.20
6.36
2.50%
Buy
0.24
-
-
VLRS NYSE · Volaris
11 Jul 20254.93
8.34
69.17%
Buy
0.20
-
-
VLTO NYSE · Veralto Corporation
26 Jun 202689.61
92.70
3.45%
Buy
0.02
-
-
VOC NYSE · VOC Energy Trust
27 Feb 20263.17
3.04
-4.10%
Buy
1.30
-
-
VOR NASDAQ · Vor Biopharma Inc
13 Feb 202612.78
19.14
49.77%
Buy
0.02
-
-
VOYG NYSE · Voyager Technologies, Inc.
3 Apr 202626.82
31.16
16.18%
Buy
0.19
-
-
VRA NASDAQ · Vera Bradley Inc
13 Feb 20262.68
4.03
50.37%
Buy
0.18
-
-
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
10 Jul 202619.74
19.74
New Entry week
Buy
0.12
-
-
VREX NASDAQ · Varex Imaging Corp
11 Jul 20258.17
11.05
35.25%
Buy
0.15
-
-
VRNS NASDAQ · Varonis Systems
1 May 202626.50
44.53
68.04%
Buy
0.12
-
-
VRSK NASDAQ · Verisk Analytics Inc
12 Jun 2026183.29
185.39
1.14%
Buy
0.23
-
-
VRTS NYSE · Virtus Investment Partners, Inc.
8 May 2026143.93
160.21
11.31%
Buy
0.08
-
-
VSTM NASDAQ · Verastem Inc
1 Nov 20243.92
5.53
41.07%
Buy
0.90
-
-
VTEX NYSE · VTEX
13 Mar 20263.79
4.06
7.12%
Buy
0.54
-
-
VVV NYSE · Valvoline Inc
30 Jan 202632.72
38.64
18.09%
Buy
0.18
-
-
VYGR NASDAQ · Voyager Therapeutics Inc
15 Aug 20253.73
3.44
-7.77%
Buy
0.97
-
-
VYNE NASDAQ · Vyne Therapeutics Inc
8 May 20260.66
0.64
-3.48%
Buy
0.46
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 181-210 of 10719
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
26 Jun 2026
Exit
DCO NYSE · Ducommun Incorporated
177.66
Reversal Risk Warning
217.82%
Entry 3 May 2024 55.90
26 Jun 2026
Entry
DFH NYSE · Dream Finders Homes Inc
17.20
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.78
26 Jun 2026
Exit
DFTX NASDAQ · Definium Therapeutics, Inc.
44.95
Reversal Risk Warning
257.88%
Entry 3 Oct 2025 12.56
26 Jun 2026
Entry
DHR NYSE · Danaher Corporation
196.19
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.16
26 Jun 2026
Exit
DTI NASDAQ · Drilling Tools International Corp.
1.96
20% entry drawdown
-21.91%
Entry 24 Oct 2025 2.51
26 Jun 2026
Exit
DWSN NASDAQ · Dawson Geophysical Company
5.33
Reversal Risk Warning
248.37%
Entry 22 Aug 2025 1.53
26 Jun 2026
Exit
ECPG NASDAQ · Encore Capital Group Inc
90.62
Reversal Risk Warning
139.10%
Entry 30 May 2025 37.90
26 Jun 2026
Entry
ELF NYSE · ELF Beauty Inc
67.43
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.13
26 Jun 2026
Entry
ENGS NASDAQ · Energys Group Limited Ordinary Shares
2.55
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.92
26 Jun 2026
Exit
ENPH NASDAQ · Enphase Energy Inc
47.58
20% entry drawdown
-25.69%
Entry 22 May 2026 64.03
26 Jun 2026
Exit
ENVA NYSE · Enova International Inc
231.04
Reversal Risk Warning
319.31%
Entry 22 Dec 2023 55.10
26 Jun 2026
Entry
ERIE NASDAQ · Erie Indemnity Company
237.36
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.37
26 Jun 2026
Exit
ETON NASDAQ · Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc
35.70
Reversal Risk Warning
346.25%
Entry 11 Oct 2024 8.00
26 Jun 2026
Exit
EVC NYSE · Entravision Communications
12.03
Reversal Risk Warning
358.84%
Entry 21 Nov 2025 2.62
26 Jun 2026
Exit
EW NYSE · Edwards Lifesciences Corp
90.78
Reversal Risk Warning
37.07%
Entry 8 Nov 2024 66.23
26 Jun 2026
Exit
EWTX NASDAQ · Edgewise Therapeutics Inc
41.46
Reversal Risk Warning
278.98%
Entry 29 Dec 2023 10.94
26 Jun 2026
Entry
FBIN NYSE · Fortune Brands Innovations Inc.
45.96
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.28
26 Jun 2026
Entry
FBIO NASDAQ · Fortress Biotech Inc
2.76
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.22
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FDBC NASDAQ · Fidelity D&D Bancorp Inc
52.00
Reversal Risk Warning
31.87%
Entry 13 Jun 2025 39.43
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FENC NASDAQ · Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc
11.02
Reversal Risk Warning
81.85%
Entry 29 Nov 2024 6.06
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FLWS NASDAQ · 1-800 FLOWERS.COM Inc
3.56
20% entry drawdown
-26.14%
Entry 8 May 2026 4.82
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FLXS NASDAQ · Flexsteel Industries Inc
72.91
Reversal Risk Warning
225.81%
Entry 12 Jan 2024 22.38
26 Jun 2026
Entry
FND NYSE · Floor & Decor Holdings Inc
59.61
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.33
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FNLC NASDAQ · First Bancorp Inc
35.12
Reversal Risk Warning
61.77%
Entry 24 Nov 2023 21.71
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FSBC NASDAQ · Five Star Bancorp
48.44
Reversal Risk Warning
129.86%
Entry 24 Nov 2023 21.07
26 Jun 2026
Exit
FUNC NASDAQ · First United Corporation
45.40
Reversal Risk Warning
167.27%
Entry 17 Nov 2023 16.99
26 Jun 2026
Entry
GDDY NYSE · Godaddy Inc
84.55
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.66
26 Jun 2026
Entry
GELS NASDAQ · Gelteq Limited Ordinary Shares
0.62
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.25
26 Jun 2026
Exit
GH NASDAQ · Guardant Health Inc
149.22
Reversal Risk Warning
357.03%
Entry 22 Nov 2024 32.65
26 Jun 2026
Exit
GHM NYSE · Graham Corporation
121.66
Reversal Risk Warning
292.45%
Entry 5 Apr 2024 31.00