Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
483.76
Total Return
383.76%
CAGR
56.75% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.30%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.67 Sortino 5.20
Current Holdings
1117
Transactions
10719 Avg 3056.2/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4801 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.4% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
28
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19 MD 0.14 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.44 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11 MD 1.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
16
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54 20% entry drawdown · -64.86%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78 Reversal Risk Warning · 52.99%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 91-120 of 1117 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
ARL NYSE · American Realty Investors Inc
30 May 202514.27
20.78
45.62%
Buy
0.29
-
-
ARQ NASDAQ · Arq Inc
22 May 20262.46
2.32
-5.69%
Buy
0.01
-
-
ARTV NASDAQ · Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
29 Aug 20253.15
9.64
206.03%
Buy
1.17
-
-
ASAN NYSE · Asana Inc
29 May 20267.70
7.33
-4.81%
Buy
0.48
-
-
ASC NYSE · Ardmore Shpng
22 Aug 202510.96
16.39
49.52%
Buy
1.96
-
-
ASH NYSE · Ashland Global Holdings Inc
4 Jul 202552.18
66.75
27.92%
Buy
0.63
-
-
ASIX NYSE · AdvanSix Inc
9 Jan 202618.20
20.28
11.44%
Buy
0.14
-
-
ASLE NASDAQ · AerSale Corp
15 Nov 20246.06
6.02
-0.66%
Buy
0.84
-
-
ASPS NASDAQ · Altisource Portfolio Solutions SA
27 Mar 20266.80
7.23
6.32%
Buy
0.45
-
-
ASRT NASDAQ · Assertio Therapeutics Inc
15 May 202623.32
23.50
0.77%
Buy
1.70
-
-
ASTH NASDAQ · Astrana Health Inc
20 Mar 202624.23
46.88
93.46%
Buy
0.21
-
-
ASUR NASDAQ · Asure Software Inc
5 Jan 20248.38
7.83
-6.56%
Buy
0.14
-
-
ATHM NYSE · Autohome Inc
19 Jun 202617.46
20.30
16.29%
Buy
0.21
-
-
ATKR NYSE · Atkore International Group Inc
9 May 202566.27
72.24
9.01%
Buy
0.10
-
-
ATNI NASDAQ · ATN International Inc
18 Jul 202516.90
23.91
41.51%
Buy
0.28
-
-
ATOM NASDAQ · Atomera Inc
13 Feb 20263.92
6.63
69.13%
Buy
0.89
-
-
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
10 Jul 2026125.53
125.53
New Entry week
Buy
0.18
-
-
ATRA NASDAQ · Atara Biotherapeutics Inc
15 May 20269.58
9.76
1.88%
Buy
0.58
-
-
ATRC NASDAQ · AtriCure Inc
12 Jul 202423.19
34.28
47.82%
Buy
0.45
-
-
ATS NYSE · ATS Corporation
30 May 202528.97
27.95
-3.52%
Buy
0.21
-
-
AURA NASDAQ · Aura Biosciences Inc
27 Feb 20265.89
6.84
16.13%
Buy
0.22
-
-
AUTL NASDAQ · Autolus Therapeutics Ltd
1 May 20261.47
1.61
9.52%
Buy
0.03
-
-
AVB NYSE · AvalonBay Communities Inc
1 May 2026181.74
191.84
5.56%
Buy
0.11
-
-
AVNT NYSE · Avient Corp
20 Jun 202532.40
36.03
11.20%
Buy
0.09
-
-
AVNW NASDAQ · Aviat Networks Inc
3 Jan 202518.40
21.65
17.66%
Buy
0.07
-
-
AVTR NYSE · Avantor Inc
12 Jun 20269.39
10.39
10.65%
Buy
0.99
-
-
AVTX NASDAQ · Avalo Therapeutics Inc
3 Oct 202513.40
19.21
43.36%
Buy
1.48
-
-
AVY NYSE · Avery Dennison Corp
8 Aug 2025167.03
160.71
-3.79%
Buy
0.38
-
-
AWRE NASDAQ · Aware Inc
29 May 20261.52
1.39
-8.55%
Buy
0.05
-
-
AXIN NASDAQ · Axiom Intelligence Acquisition Corp 1 Class A Ordinary Shares
6 Mar 202610.15
10.32
1.67%
Buy
0.42
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1051-1080 of 10719
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
22 May 2026
Entry
DMRC NASDAQ · Digimarc Corporation
13.68
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.65
22 May 2026
Entry
DRVN NASDAQ · Driven Brands Holdings Inc
13.77
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.06
22 May 2026
Exit
EDRY NASDAQ · EuroDry Ltd
23.44
Reversal Risk Warning
95.01%
Entry 12 Sep 2025 12.02
22 May 2026
Entry
ENPH NASDAQ · Enphase Energy Inc
64.03
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.30
22 May 2026
Exit
ERIC NASDAQ · Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson B ADR
13.50
Reversal Risk Warning
161.54%
Entry 8 Dec 2023 5.16
22 May 2026
Entry
ESRT NYSE · Empire State Realty Trust Inc
5.54
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.26
22 May 2026
Entry
ESTC NYSE · Elastic NV
54.81
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.08
22 May 2026
Entry
EXLS NASDAQ · ExlService Holdings Inc
29.51
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.35
22 May 2026
Entry
FATE NASDAQ · Fate Therapeutics Inc
2.25
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.61
22 May 2026
Exit
FFIV NASDAQ · F5 Networks Inc
393.63
Reversal Risk Warning
128.06%
Entry 1 Dec 2023 172.60
22 May 2026
Exit
FLY NASDAQ · Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock
49.50
Reversal Risk Warning
50.32%
Entry 3 Apr 2026 32.93
22 May 2026
Exit
FRT NYSE · Federal Realty Investment Trust
118.64
Reversal Risk Warning
34.97%
Entry 1 Dec 2023 87.90
22 May 2026
Entry
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.46
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.01
22 May 2026
Exit
GAUZ NASDAQ · Gauzy Ltd. Ordinary Shares
0.66
20% entry drawdown
-23.40%
Entry 15 May 2026 0.86
22 May 2026
Entry
GCL NASDAQ · GCL Global Holdings Ltd Ordinary Shares
0.69
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.27
22 May 2026
Entry
GENI NYSE · Genius Sports Ltd
5.35
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.04
22 May 2026
Exit
GFS NASDAQ · Globalfoundries Inc
85.52
Reversal Risk Warning
126.66%
Entry 6 Jun 2025 37.73
22 May 2026
Entry
GPK NYSE · Graphic Packaging Holding Company
10.07
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.30
22 May 2026
Entry
GPN NYSE · Global Payments Inc
72.99
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.22
22 May 2026
Exit
GTX NASDAQ · Garrett Motion Inc
33.20
Reversal Risk Warning
212.50%
Entry 2 May 2025 10.63
22 May 2026
Entry
HCAI NASDAQ · Huachen AI Parking Management Technology Holding Co Ltd
10.00
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.54
22 May 2026
Exit
HIMX NASDAQ · Himax Technologies Inc
20.70
Reversal Risk Warning
235.01%
Entry 17 May 2024 6.18
22 May 2026
Exit
HLIT NASDAQ · Harmonic Inc
15.20
Reversal Risk Warning
60.17%
Entry 27 Jun 2025 9.49
22 May 2026
Exit
HLLY NYSE · Holley Inc
2.51
20% entry drawdown
-20.06%
Entry 8 Aug 2025 3.14
22 May 2026
Exit
HOVR NASDAQ · New Horizon Aircraft Ltd
3.14
Reversal Risk Warning
560.64%
Entry 22 Nov 2024 0.48
22 May 2026
Exit
HTB NYSE · HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.
46.83
Reversal Risk Warning
97.69%
Entry 28 Jul 2023 23.69
22 May 2026
Entry
HUIZ NASDAQ · Huize Holding Ltd
1.75
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.16
22 May 2026
Exit
ICCC NASDAQ · ImmuCell Corporation
10.12
Reversal Risk Warning
145.63%
Entry 29 Nov 2024 4.12
22 May 2026
Entry
ICLR NASDAQ · ICON PLC
116.78
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
22 May 2026
Exit
IMTE NASDAQ · Integrated Media Technology Ltd
0.50
20% entry drawdown
-20.12%
Entry 6 Mar 2026 0.62