Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AAL options intelligence
American Airlines Group options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
42
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 13:38 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
AAL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
5.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.52
Call-side skew
Trend fit
71
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+5.5%
RS 3.3
Expected move
5.3%
Put-call volume
0.52
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.46
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
15.27
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
744
Research Brief
AAL has a bullish chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.46–16.08; The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 13.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.
Priced range14.46–16.08
Call concentration16.00
Put concentration13.50
Max pain reference15.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 14.46 to 16.08. Max pain at 15.00 sits inside that range, 1.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
14.4615.27 ± 0.8116.08
Confirmation level
A close beyond 16.08 or below 14.46 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 42/100
Pressure is 22/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure22 × 42%
+9.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility54 × 10%
+5.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 13.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
5.00-67.3%
329
0
8.00-47.6%
510
20
9.00-41.1%
344
537
12.00-21.4%
35
214
12.50-18.1%
66
1155
13.00-14.9%
123
2643
13.50-11.6%
44
2074
14.00-8.3%
300
1978
14.50-5.0%
1105
1608
15.00-1.8%
747
1542
15.501.5%
1195
706
16.004.8%
2177
288
16.508.1%
1860
102
17.0011.3%
1812
20
17.5014.6%
420
30
18.0017.9%
486
1
18.5021.2%
1153
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.46
7 Aug
7d
0.48
14 Aug
14d
0.48
21 Aug
21d
0.49
28 Aug
28d
0.49
4 Sep
35d
0.50
11 Sep
42d
0.51
18 Sep
49d
0.54
20 Nov
112d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 744 / 744
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.8M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+22
1W price+5.5%
Call premium61%
Put premium39%
Notional split
C 61% / P 39%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
71/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 1555 contracts traded, $409602 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$409602
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 3793 contracts traded, $277838 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$277838
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 12030 contracts traded, $260018 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$260018
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 995 contracts traded, $193358 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$193358
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1198 contracts traded, $176755 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$176755
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close15.27
1W+5.5%
RS3.3
Fair value+15.6%
Options pressure22
Speculation41
Volatility54
Trend fit71
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:28
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 10:24
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 4.4%
30 Jul 17:17
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 04:30
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 6.8%
31 Jul 17:24
Volatility
Pressure -15
Move 5.5%
1 Aug 12:38
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 5.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 329
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike6.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 108
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike7.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 66
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike8.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 510
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 344
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike9.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike10.00
Calls · V 94 · OI 122
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike10.50
Calls · V 88 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.46
Put-call1.45
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.56
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.43
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.14
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.03
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.47
Skew0.04
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.47
Skew0.02
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.48
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.50
Skew0.03
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.51
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAAL260904C00018000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume11377
OI495
IV0.50
ContractAAL260828C00015500
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike15.50
Volume3571
OI253
IV0.47
ContractAAL260918C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume2410
OI42136
IV0.49
ContractAAL260807P00015000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume2271
OI1608
IV0.47
ContractAAL260821C00017000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume1967
OI17938
IV0.47
ContractAAL260807P00014500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike14.50
Volume1619
OI1978
IV0.47
ContractAAL260807P00015500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.50
Volume1601
OI1542
IV0.48
ContractAAL260807C00016000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume1600
OI2177
IV0.43
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
American Airlines Group (AAL) slides onto active-mover tape20 Jul 2026 20:45
American Airlines Group (AAL) draws active interest as price signals diverge17 Jul 2026 15:29
American Airlines Group (AAL) drops 3.8% as active-screen volume swells14 Jul 2026 19:54
American Airlines Group (AAL) slips 0.6% as active volume stands out13 Jul 2026 16:54
American Airlines Group (AAL) slips onto active screen as airline trade turns uneven9 Jul 2026 20:40
American Airlines Group (AAL) slips on active screen as confirmation stays thin6 Jul 2026 14:41
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.