Ticker Options Intelligence

GPRE options intelligence

Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 16:56 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

GPRE currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.40

Call-side skew

Trend fit 52

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -11.9%

RS 22.9

Expected move 14.7%
Put-call volume 0.40
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.78
Max pain 17.00
Underlying 16.95
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 133

Research Brief

GPRE has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.45–19.45; The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.00.

Priced range14.45–19.45
Call concentration20.00
Put concentration17.00
Max pain reference17.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 14.45 to 19.45. Max pain at 17.00 sits inside that range, 0.3% above spot.

Spot Max pain
14.4516.95 ± 2.5019.45
Confirmation level

A close beyond 19.45 or below 14.45 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 51/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure51 × 42%
+21.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation25 × 22%
+5.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement52 × 26%
+13.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility95 × 10%
+9.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score49.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6
7.00-58.7%
0
6
9.00-46.9%
0
2
10.00-41.0%
1
1
11.00-35.1%
0
7
13.00-23.3%
0
35
14.00-17.4%
0
188
15.00-11.5%
2
106
16.00-5.6%
21
529
17.000.3%
299
6
18.006.2%
424
1
19.0012.1%
951
7
20.0018.0%
1888
0
21.0023.9%
408
0
22.0029.8%
4
0
23.0035.7%
2
0
24.0041.6%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.62× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.78 21 Aug 22d
0.54 18 Sep 50d
0.66 18 Dec 141d
0.49 15 Jan 169d
0.64 19 Mar 232d
0.48 21 Jan 540d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
133 / 133
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $479264 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+51
1W price-11.9%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split C 69% / P 31% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 52/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 10 Aug Matched earnings event is 10 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 145 contracts traded, $145164 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$145164
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 378 contracts traded, $87320 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$87320
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 105 contracts traded, $82738 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$82738
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 276 contracts traded, $42366 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$42366
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 329 contracts traded, $26700 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$26700

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close16.95
1W-11.9%
RS22.9
Fair value+12.9%
Options pressure51
Speculation25
Volatility95
Trend fit52

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.7% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.78 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:12 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.8%
30 Jul 10:59 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 15.2%
30 Jul 15:56 Volatility
Pressure 51
Move 14.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 1
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 7
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 35
Strike15.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 188
Strike16.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 21
Puts · V 1 · OI 106

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.21
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts35
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.09
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.66
Put-call1.36
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts19
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.15
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.64
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.82
Skew0.20
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.59
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.68
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.65
Skew0.01
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGPRE280121C00022000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.69
ContractGPRE261218C00009000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike9.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.76
ContractGPRE260821P00007000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.00
Volume-
OI6
IV3.01
ContractGPRE260821P00009000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume-
OI6
IV2.29
ContractGPRE260821P00018000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.77
ContractGPRE270115C00022000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.70
ContractGPRE260821P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.06
ContractGPRE261218P00014000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike14.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.01