GPRE NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc · Basic Materials · Chemicals

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Latest close 16.95 USD
-11.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 78.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -11.9%, after a 12.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 50/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 10d.

Setup score 65 out of 100
Latest Close 16.95 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return -11.9% latest completed week
4W Return 12.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return -4.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 96.2% 50 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 50-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -11.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 12.3%. Indicator stack 98/50 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 50/100 conviction; expected move 14.7%. News sentiment 56/100 45 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 10d Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 78.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -11.9%, after a 12.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6612-week average 0.82

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.66Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 12.3% over four weeks, -4.6% over 12 weeks, and 104.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 50 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-11.9%
4W12.3%
12W-4.6%
26W45.0%
52W104.2%
Active trend streak50 weeks
Active weeks in one year50
Trend breadth96.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.30Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change63.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership22.90Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change121.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 90%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength74/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Value70/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Quality11/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Momentum94/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Growth14/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework10/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.0x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
9.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
5.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
2.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
7.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.8%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-21.0%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
159.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
2.5%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

GPRE shows volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.40, expected move of 14.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction50/100
Expected move14.7%
Put/call volume0.40
Pressure51
Speculation25
Volatility95
Trend agreement52
Open options detail
Insider activity8 / 2

8 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.

16 positive · 26 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings10dNext report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move14.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-13.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+20.9%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-11.9%Week of 24 Jul.
Latest week-11.9%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses5
Recent vol7.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.4% / -4.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape67/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 67/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis71/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.66; No reversal markers Factors60/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 20; Small Cap Core rank 25 SVQF10/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 651.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options50/100

GPRE shows volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.40, expected move of 14.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 14.7% Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.

Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy? Insiders8 / 2

8 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings10d

Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202616.95 USD-11.9%15.02 USD15.01 USD-0.3022.906.0MOn
17 Jul 202619.23 USD13.9%14.78 USD15.13 USD-0.4338.539.6MOn
10 Jul 202616.89 USD8.9%14.46 USD15.22 USD-0.8118.144.8MOn
3 Jul 202615.51 USD2.8%14.22 USD15.32 USD-0.8811.414.1MOn
26 Jun 202615.09 USD1.8%14.02 USD15.44 USD-0.8210.327.6MOn
19 Jun 202614.82 USD-1.2%13.86 USD15.55 USD-0.824.569.0MOn
12 Jun 202615.00 USD0.2%13.70 USD15.64 USD-0.749.676.6MOn
5 Jun 202614.97 USD-4.5%13.52 USD15.76 USD-0.4113.156.5MOn
29 May 202615.67 USD1.3%13.36 USD15.86 USD0.0914.676.0MOn
22 May 202615.47 USD-9.7%13.18 USD15.96 USD0.4418.108.1MOn
15 May 202617.14 USD-5.8%13.03 USD16.06 USD0.5834.327.7MOn
8 May 202618.19 USD2.4%12.84 USD16.15 USD0.6044.2610.5MOn
1 May 202617.76 USD11.6%12.53 USD16.24 USD0.4451.426.0MOn
24 Apr 202615.92 USD7.4%12.26 USD16.33 USD0.6140.715.8MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.