CF NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

CF Industries Holdings Inc · Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

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Latest close 125.1 USD
3.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 75.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a 18.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 43/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 49/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 6d.

Setup score 65 out of 100
Latest Close 125.1 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.0% latest completed week
4W Return 18.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return 2.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 69.2% 36 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 24-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.0% Latest completed week; four-week move 18.3%. Indicator stack 83/44 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 43/100 conviction; expected move 4.0%. News sentiment 49/100 14 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 6d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 75.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a 18.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.4312-week average 0.71

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership11/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.43Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 18.3% over four weeks, 2.3% over 12 weeks, and 36.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 24 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.0%
4W18.3%
12W2.3%
26W36.6%
52W36.9%
Active trend streak24 weeks
Active weeks in one year36
Trend breadth69.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.53Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change40.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership17.82Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1122.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength97/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Value85/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Quality98/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Momentum76/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Growth97/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework90/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
10.9x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
15.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
40.4%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
37.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
50.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
32.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
20.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
31.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
24.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
8/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.6%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
5.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

CF shows bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.65, expected move of 4.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction43/100
Expected move4.0%
Put/call volume0.65
Pressure23
Speculation41
Volatility50
Trend agreement76
Open options detail
Insider activity12 / 0

12 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment49/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 14 relevant articles.

1 positive · 12 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings6dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-11.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+16.3%Week of 6 Mar.
Worst week-7.7%Week of 29 May.
Latest week+3.0%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses6
Recent vol5.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.5% / -4.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape63/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 63/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis64/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 11/12.

Activity pressure 0.43; No reversal markers Factors89/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 12; Small Cap Core rank 20 SVQF90/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 97.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options65/100

CF shows bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.65, expected move of 4.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.0% Sentiment49/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 14 relevant articles.

CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Institutional Confidence Insiders12 / 0

12 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings6d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow1 items

1 recent research articles and 0 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 2026125.1 USD3.0%110.1 USD85.22 USD-0.5317.8210.4MOn
17 Jul 2026121.4 USD3.8%108.5 USD84.90 USD-0.7814.0811.9MOn
10 Jul 2026116.9 USD5.8%107.0 USD84.60 USD-0.968.4114.1MOn
3 Jul 2026110.5 USD4.6%105.7 USD84.29 USD-0.993.879.9MOn
26 Jun 2026105.7 USD2.7%104.6 USD84.01 USD-0.891.4614.0MOn
19 Jun 2026102.9 USD-6.0%103.7 USD83.75 USD-0.80-3.5714.2MOn
12 Jun 2026109.5 USD-3.5%102.9 USD83.51 USD-0.593.1115.4MOn
5 Jun 2026113.5 USD1.0%102.0 USD83.24 USD-0.387.2411.1MOn
29 May 2026112.3 USD-7.7%100.9 USD82.92 USD-0.223.5211.8MOn
22 May 2026121.7 USD-2.8%99.92 USD82.57 USD0.0113.7114.5MOn
15 May 2026125.2 USD9.3%98.70 USD82.17 USD0.1618.2214.6MOn
8 May 2026114.6 USD-6.3%97.27 USD81.76 USD0.238.7019.4MOn
1 May 2026122.2 USD1.5%96.32 USD81.43 USD0.5018.8712.6MOn
24 Apr 2026120.4 USD7.3%95.21 USD81.06 USD0.7918.7415.8MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.