Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CAKE options intelligence
The Cheesecake Factory options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 12:08 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CAKE currently carries bullish options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 19.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.31.
Expected move
19.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.31
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.33
Call-side skew
Trend fit
53
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+19.7%
RS 54.1
Expected move
19.7%
Put-call volume
0.33
Volume / OI
0.31
Reference IV
0.27
Max pain
87.50
Underlying
84.72
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
352
Research Brief
CAKE has a bullish chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 68.02–101.42; The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00.
Priced range68.02–101.42
Call concentration90.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference87.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 68.02 to 101.42. Max pain at 87.50 sits inside that range, 3.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
68.0284.72 ± 16.70101.42
Confirmation level
A close beyond 101.42 or below 68.02 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 51/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure51 × 42%
+21.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation47 × 22%
+10.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement53 × 26%
+13.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility59 × 10%
+5.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
247
65.00-23.3%
3
157
67.50-20.3%
5
255
70.00-17.4%
13
20
72.50-14.4%
20
305
75.00-11.5%
49
144
77.50-8.5%
38
390
80.00-5.6%
38
241
82.50-2.6%
16
307
85.000.3%
101
59
87.503.3%
36
73
90.006.2%
285
58
92.509.2%
33
47
95.0012.1%
109
0
97.5015.1%
0
54
100.0018.0%
124
19
105.0023.9%
119
6
110.0029.8%
95
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.27
21 Aug
22d
0.25
18 Sep
50d
0.37
16 Oct
78d
0.39
15 Jan
169d
0.40
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
70
73
75
78
80
83
85
88
90
93
95
98
100
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 352 / 352
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $864007 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+51
1W price+19.7%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split
C 84% / P 16%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.31
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
53/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2884 contracts traded, $534994 estimated gross traded notional, and 62% of visible notional.
$534994
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 146 contracts traded, $103930 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$103930
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 169 contracts traded, $56038 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$56038
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 31 contracts traded, $55670 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$55670
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 32 contracts traded, $35495 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$35495
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close101.42
1W+19.7%
RS54.1
Fair value+115.1%
Options pressure51
Speculation47
Volatility59
Trend fit53
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:53
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 9.6%
30 Jul 10:43
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 19.4%
31 Jul 11:08
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 19.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 247
Strike67.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 157
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 6 · OI 255
Strike72.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 625 · OI 20
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 49
Puts · V 1 · OI 305
Strike77.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 38
Puts · V 11 · OI 144
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.31
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.91
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.27
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts84
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.46
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts84
Avg IV0.40
Put-call2.08
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.53
Skew0.17
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.45
Skew0.12
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.43
Skew0.09
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.42
Skew0.08
21 Jan 2028Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.43
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCAKE260821C00110000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume1482
OI95
IV0.37
ContractCAKE260821C00105000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume1153
OI119
IV0.35
ContractCAKE260821P00072500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike72.50
Volume625
OI20
IV0.50
ContractCAKE260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume151
OI124
IV0.34
ContractCAKE260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume71
OI285
IV0.01
ContractCAKE260821P00100000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume63
OI54
IV0.35
ContractCAKE260821P00095000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume60
OI47
IV0.41
ContractCAKE261016C00090000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike90.00
Volume51
OI351
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.