Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MO options intelligence
Altria Group options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 02:52 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
2.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.58
Call-side skew
Trend fit
63
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-6.4%
RS -1.3
Expected move
2.8%
Put-call volume
0.58
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.26
Max pain
70.00
Underlying
68.33
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
714
Research Brief
MO has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 66.42–70.24; The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 69.00.
Priced range66.42–70.24
Call concentration70.00
Put concentration70.00
Max pain reference70.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 66.42 to 70.24. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 2.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
66.4268.33 ± 1.9170.24
Confirmation level
A close beyond 70.24 or below 66.42 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 27/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement63 × 26%
+16.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility29 × 10%
+2.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 69.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
286
65.00-4.9%
5
135
66.00-3.4%
154
173
67.00-1.9%
5
313
68.00-0.5%
266
251
69.001.0%
422
1651
70.002.4%
1264
141
71.003.9%
796
355
72.005.4%
170
977
73.006.8%
370
207
74.008.3%
387
254
75.009.8%
686
64
76.0011.2%
440
0
77.0012.7%
834
10
78.0014.2%
655
9
79.0015.6%
819
2
80.0017.1%
215
0
82.0020.0%
250
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.26
7 Aug
7d
0.26
14 Aug
14d
0.25
21 Aug
21d
0.25
28 Aug
28d
0.25
4 Sep
35d
0.24
11 Sep
42d
0.27
18 Sep
49d
0.25
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
55
60
61
62
63
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
77
78
79
80
81
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 714 / 714
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+27
1W price-6.4%
Call premium52%
Put premium48%
Notional split
C 52% / P 48%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
63/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 2582 contracts traded, $322994 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$322994
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 734 contracts traded, $292296 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$292296
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1386 contracts traded, $275008 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$275008
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 193 contracts traded, $217082 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$217082
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1148 contracts traded, $203874 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$203874
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close68.33
1W-6.4%
RS-1.3
Fair value+36.8%
Options pressure27
Speculation41
Volatility29
Trend fit63
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 20:52
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 7.0%
31 Jul 09:27
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 7.0%
2 Aug 01:52
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 2.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike55.00
Calls · V 70 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 67
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 11 · OI 2
Strike61.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 7
Strike62.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike63.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 10
Puts · V 10 · OI 45
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.60
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.35
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.25
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.41
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.25
Put-call1.08
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.25
Skew-0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.27
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.27
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.26
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.26
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMO260918P00065000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume2405
OI9358
IV0.29
ContractMO260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume2390
OI4917
IV0.27
ContractMO260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume1089
OI9960
IV0.23
ContractMO260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume819
OI5414
IV0.25
ContractMO260807C00070000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume623
OI1264
IV0.26
ContractMO260807C00069000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike69.00
Volume619
OI422
IV0.25
ContractMO260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume502
OI3396
IV0.27
ContractMO260918C00072500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike72.50
Volume445
OI8051
IV0.24
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.