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Weekly closes ยท USD
Market context
Stage
3 ยท Stage 3A ยท Churning, as of 11 Sep 2026
Sentiment
57 ยท As of 19 Sep 2026
RS
-1.49
Dynamics
-0.94
Fair value gap
+34.7%
Week range
67.40โ69.66
Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
NYSE ยท Equity ยท United States
MO
Altria Group
Consumer DefensiveTobacco
Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.
Last updated
11 Sep 2026
Exchange
NYSE ยท NYSE
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Tobacco
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
113,826,440,378
Fair value reference
51.21
Next-week expectancy
Positive ยท 64.10%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-11, MO fell 6.52%, moving from 73.79 to 68.98. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 8 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -1.49 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.94 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 64.10% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
11 Sep 2026
Latest Close
68.98
12-Week Change
-6.52%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 64.10%
Signal Weeks
8 of 12
Weekly Chart Terminal
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Weekly Trend
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Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-11
Support is stabilising
PSI is stabilising, but the direction is not yet clear. The next completed weeks will show whether support strengthens or fades.
PSI score
51/100
4 completed weeks
Recent support
+8
Limited
Readings pointing the same way
75%
Little clear activity
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
The navy line is price. Green and red bars show support. The coloured trend lines show positive, negative or possible change.
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together63/100
Broad pressure high ยท more together
Ticker and market
The ticker reading is mixed
PSI has no clear direction. The wider market adds context, but does not change that mixed reading.
PSI
+2.0
Market togetherness
63/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Ticker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Current contextTicker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Ticker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
The two readings are mixed
Neither reading gives a clear direction.
Current reading
-0.94
Four-week change
-0.44
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-11
Price is advancing above the adaptive centre
The envelope places current price in context without treating a single band touch as a signal. Direction, persistence and the evidence checks below determine the quality of the read.
Use the envelope for price location and Market Dynamics to see whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Supportive Market DynamicsCautious Market DynamicsNeutral line
APE and support read
Market Dynamics is not confirming the upper-envelope position
Price remains on the upper side of APE while underlying support is cautious. That divergence raises the importance of the adaptive centre and the next completed closes.
Current reading
-0.94
Four-week change
-0.44
Current path
Weakening
Confirmation checks
What supports or challenges the current read
A band touch is context, not a conclusion. These independent checks show whether the completed-week move has broader support.
Envelope pathSupportive62% of the envelope
Price location and the direction of the adaptive centre are read together.
Trend LineSupportiveAbove and rising
Checks whether completed-week price and the primary trend are moving in the same direction.
Market DynamicsCautious-0.94 ยท -0.44 over 4 weeks
Tests whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Relative strengthMixed-1.5 ยท +6.8 over 4 weeks
Shows whether the listing is strengthening or weakening against its stored comparison benchmark.
ParticipationMixed0.72ร recent volume
Checks whether the current move is attracting more participation than recent completed weeks.
Completed-week analysis
How to interpret this envelope now
Price position
Above the adaptive centre
The latest close sits at 62% of the current lower-to-upper envelope span and has held this state for 3 completed weeks.
Envelope width
Envelope width is typical
Current width ranks at the 70th percentile of the recent completed-week history. Compression can precede expansion but does not determine direction.
Evidence agreement
Partial confirmation
60% of the available trend, support, relative-strength and participation checks agree with or do not contradict the current envelope pressure.
What to watch next
Persistence, repair or rejection
Watch completed closes around the adaptive centre (63.98), upper boundary (75.39) and lower boundary (58.34).
Recent completed events
What changed around the envelope
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Auction Intelligence
Sharemaestro market acceptance
Auction Intelligence
Where the market has accepted value, how that value is moving, and which price pathways remain structurally open.
Current auction stateHigher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
Price location
Above accepted value
Accepted value
Higher
Persistence
35 weeks
Auction runway
More open above
Accepted value31.72โ56.28
Principal three-year auction range
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The upside is in price discovery while established market memory remains below.
AboveOpen discoveryNo established acceptance shelf is visible in this direction inside the three-year range.
Below62.42Established market memory sits 9.5% below the latest close.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above56.28
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet34.08
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below31.72
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
67.14
-2.7%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
62.42
-9.5%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
57.70
-16.4%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
54.86
-20.5%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
47.31
-31.4%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
41.64
-39.6%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Above accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Higher
30-week trendThe latest close is 0.6% above the trend line.Price above
Fair-value positionMarket price is 34.7% above the current fair-value reference.Above
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Supply column falling
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Expectations ahead
Higher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
More open above
The upside is in price discovery while established market memory remains below.
Low-acceptance corridor below
A historically thin acceptance area begins near 67.14, 2.7% below the latest close.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
3 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Current weekly interpretationDeclining structure with indecisive week
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range. Price is above its completed-week trend reference and that reference is rising.
Full context ยท Unstable
Current structureDeclining structure
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
Trend relationshipAbove a rising trend
Price is above its completed-week trend reference and that reference is rising.
Support and resistanceSupport 53.61 ยท Resistance 69.29
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
Participation qualityNormal participation
Participation was broadly consistent with the market's completed recent history.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move+0.15%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterIndecisive week
The open and close finished close together, showing limited control by either side.
Where the week closedUpper part of the range
The close finished at 70% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityUnstable
Frequent recent changes in direction reduce confidence in the current price path.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is above a rising trend; participation is normal participation, and path quality is unstable.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history90% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-7.0%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+235.5%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical0.1ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
2 weeks ago
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
8 weeks ago
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
25 weeks ago
Trend lost
The weekly close moved below the completed trend reference.
45 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateAbove accepted value
52-week position
66.4%
Low to high
Accepted price
55.36
Latest versus accepted: 24.60%
Fitted direction
Rising
0.43% per week
Range pressure
44/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Normal
0.83ร normal range
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Support53.45
From price
-22.5%
Evidence
76/100
Touches
7
Support55.37
From price
-19.7%
Evidence
100/100
Touches
7
Support68.32
From price
-1.0%
Evidence
29/100
Touches
1
Resistance73.37
From price
6.4%
Evidence
37/100
Touches
2
Resistance77.06
From price
11.7%
Evidence
27/100
Touches
1
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionAbove accepted value
Price is at 66.4% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionRising
The fitted centre line is moving +0.43% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 44/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level73.37
Resistance is 6.4% from the latest close with 37/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Current Smart Money readSmart Money evidence is mixed
Some visible evidence is supportive, but the combined picture does not yet justify a strong conclusion.
Momentum 0.73 ยท Weakening
Trend qualityMixed
The current trend state has persisted for 4 completed weeks; visible confirmation is mixed.
Momentum pathConstructive ยท Weakening
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsWatch
The latest reversal warning was 9 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
There is limited positive confirmation; the chart should be read cautiously until support improves.
What would improve it
A turn higher in the momentum path, followed by steadier trend confirmation, would strengthen the reading.
What could weaken it
The latest reversal warning was 9 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
9 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
11 weeks ago
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
18 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
19 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Price is running ahead of Market Dynamics
Price is -6.5% across this view and is in the upper part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is -0.94 after a -0.44 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. The price move has less underlying support than its location suggests.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-06-26Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
At distribution for 3 completed weeks
The distribution reading is confirmed. A downward exit starts the reverse journey toward accumulation.
Current journey
No active journey
Activated
Not active
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. MO is currently in the distribution area, but a new transition does not begin until price leaves a confirmed zone. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Accumulation 37.61Distribution 68.51
A dark-zone close or two consecutive light-zone closes confirms residence. A completed close moving out of confirmed accumulation starts a journey toward distribution; an exit from confirmed distribution starts the reverse journey. Time in each zone is retained before the next transition begins.
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution ยท Confirmed distribution
2024-05-10โ2026-05-22 ยท 107 completed weeks ยท price move +90.6%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2024-05-10โ2026-05-22 ยท journey 107w ยท source dwell 33w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+90.6%
Time to confirm
107w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 107 completed weeks. Price moved +90.6% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Current stateExpectations ahead
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is stable and has persisted through 9 updates.
Spread
Stable
Persistence
9 quarters
Confirmation
Broad support
Repricing pressure
High โ price-led
Market move100.7%
Three-year change
Earnings move12.1%
Three-year change
Repricing spread-88.6 pts
stable
Current valuation12.4ร
Price relative to earnings power
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is stable and has persisted through 9 updates.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
4 of 5 available business-quality checks are supportive.
EarningsRevenueCash generation
Cash conversionWhether reported profit is supported by free cash generation.Supportive
Revenue directionWhether top-line progress supports the earnings direction.Supportive
Free-cash-flow directionWhether free cash flow is improving with earnings.Caution
Accrual pressureLower accrual pressure is a cleaner confirmation of earnings.Supportive
Share countA stable or falling share count makes per-share progress more durable.Supportive
Signal robustness
Does the relationship persist across time horizons?
Shows whether the same earnings or price lead remains visible from shorter starting points.
Market acceptance
How price responded to each earnings update
Across completed four-week windows, 0 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 3 had a meaningful positive price response.
Professional contextPeer rarity, comparable outcomes and state history
Peer groupTobacco4 comparable companies
Repricing rarity67peer percentile
Spread position33peer percentile
Quality position67peer percentile
Comparable historical outcomes
There are not yet enough comparable point-in-time observations for a responsible outcome summary.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Expectations ahead
Related repricing signals
UVVPrice-led-66.9 pts
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure is established and strengthening
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position. Positive pressure is becoming more forceful across the recent completed path.
+34.69% ยท Positive ยท Strengthening
Market positionPositive
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position.
Pressure directionStrengthening
Positive pressure is becoming more forceful across the recent completed path.
Trend qualityPersistent
Directional progress remains visible despite some interruption.
Risks and warningsNormal
No elevated completed-week pressure warning is active.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Continued positive pressure with an orderly completed path would strengthen confirmation.
What could weaken it
A turn lower in the pressure path or a loss of balance would weaken the current interpretation.
What to watch next
The latest path is strengthening with persistent trend quality. Comparable history is mixed follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionUpper 20% of history
The latest reading is stronger than 80% of completed observations.
State persistence132 completed weeks
The current positive state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyMixed follow-through
Across 155 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 52% of the time; the typical move was +0.2%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
7 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
11 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
13 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
15 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
17 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
19 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Shows price against its completed-week volume-weighted references, changes in control and the levels that would confirm or weaken the current reading.
Current controlBuyer control developing
Price is above the core VWAP, which is rising. 81% of recent weighted activity has been accepted above it.
61/100 pressure
ControlBuyer control developing
Pressure 61/100 and +10.3 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack6 of 7 below price
6 references converge near 67.69: 26-week VWAP, 13-week VWAP, Latest earnings VWAP, Swing low, Year VWAP, High-activity anchor.
Acceptance81% above
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Control backgroundBuyer controlContestedSeller control
Seller control50 ยท contestedBuyer control
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
Constructive VWAP test
Constructive VWAP test
Price is testing the core VWAP while the broader control reading remains constructive.
Price and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
VWAP cluster present
6 references converge near 67.69: 26-week VWAP, 13-week VWAP, Latest earnings VWAP, Swing low, Year VWAP, High-activity anchor.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation69.69
A completed close above 13-week VWAP with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area68.61
26-week VWAP at 68.61, 0.5% below the latest close.
Weakening level68.61
A completed close below 26-week VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
26-week VWAP68.61
-0.54% from close
13-week VWAP69.69
+1.03% from close
Latest earnings VWAP68.12
-1.25% from close
Swing low67.69
-1.87% from close
Year VWAP66.33
-3.84% from close
High-activity anchor65.70
-4.76% from close
52-week VWAP63.98
-7.25% from close
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 73%Above price 28%
25%near price
Most recent weighted activity is below price, leaving a larger estimated cushion beneath the market.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท SPYWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -20.1 points.
Buyers firmly in control ยท 81/100
Sector ยท Consumer DefensiveStronger control than reference
Stronger control than reference; control-score gap +40.1 points.
Sellers firmly in control ยท 21/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim100% favourable
Events
2
Median 4w
+5.82%
Median 13w
+9.90%
Typical best
+12.98%
Typical worst
+0.30%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss0% favourable
Events
2
Median 4w
+4.09%
Median 13w
+12.67%
Typical best
+14.17%
Typical worst
+2.40%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states11 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
100%
Median 4w
+9.14%
Positive after 13w
100%
Median 13w
+14.17%
Best / worst 13w
+22.3% / +5.6%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
VWAP structure turned higher
The fast VWAP crossed above the core VWAP.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Current SMI readUnderlying support is constructive, with early moderation
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.62 ยท Constructive
Current stateConstructive ยท 0.62
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionWeakening
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceDeveloping
4 completed weeks in the current state
Price relationshipMixed relationship
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.62 ยท Constructive
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have carried a positive historical bias
Across 44 comparable completed observations, 68.2% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was +3.7%.
Comparable observations
44
Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
68.2%
After 13 completed weeks
Median move
+3.7%
Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+1.2 pts
Difference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
11 Sep 2026
Latest Close
68.98
12-Week Change
-6.52%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 64.10%
Signal Weeks
8 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Above
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
-1.49
Market Dynamics
-0.94
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-11, MO fell 6.52%, moving from 73.79 to 68.98. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 8 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -1.49 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.94 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 64.10% based on similar historical setup states.
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