Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MOD options intelligence
Modine Manufacturing Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
47
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 19:31 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MOD currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
15.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.23
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-16.8%
RS -3.3
Expected move
15.9%
Put-call volume
0.23
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.83
Max pain
200.00
Underlying
201.06
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
974
Research Brief
MOD has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 169.01–233.11; The largest call open-interest concentration is 300.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 195.00.
Priced range169.01–233.11
Call concentration300.00
Put concentration160.00
Max pain reference200.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 169.01 to 233.11. Max pain at 200.00 sits inside that range, 0.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
169.01201.06 ± 32.05233.11
Confirmation level
A close beyond 233.11 or below 169.01 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 47/100
Pressure is 68/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure68 × 42%
+28.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 300.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 195.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1474
160.00-20.4%
17
458
180.00-10.5%
31
245
185.00-8.0%
542
166
190.00-5.5%
420
189
195.00-3.0%
1016
583
200.00-0.5%
639
269
210.004.4%
246
221
220.009.4%
1632
443
230.0014.4%
129
587
240.0019.4%
434
107
250.0024.3%
219
62
260.0029.3%
470
283
270.0034.3%
1629
144
280.0039.3%
322
147
300.0049.2%
3870
3
310.0054.2%
1029
0
340.0069.1%
3157
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.83
21 Aug
21d
0.83
18 Sep
49d
0.83
20 Nov
112d
0.81
15 Jan
168d
0.81
19 Feb
203d
0.80
19 Mar
231d
0.80
17 Jun
321d
0.81
17 Sep
413d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 974 / 974
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+68
1W price-16.8%
Call premium68%
Put premium32%
Notional split
C 68% / P 32%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 331 contracts traded, $922120 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$922120
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 424 contracts traded, $825125 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$825125
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1003 contracts traded, $662135 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$662135
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 109 contracts traded, $389055 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$389055
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 57 contracts traded, $323130 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$323130
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close201.06
1W-16.8%
RS-3.3
Fair value+61.5%
Options pressure68
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 21.7%
30 Jul 10:19
Volatility
Pressure 58
Move 28.3%
31 Jul 02:21
Volatility
Pressure 13
Move 21.9%
31 Jul 03:21
Volatility
Pressure 14
Move 21.9%
1 Aug 18:31
Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 15.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 33
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts108
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.15
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.38
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.91
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts122
Avg IV0.81
Put-call1.29
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts90
Avg IV0.81
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.81
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.82
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.83
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.82
Skew0.04
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.82
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMOD260821C00195000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike195.00
Volume413
OI1016
IV0.84
ContractMOD260821C00210000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume407
OI246
IV0.82
ContractMOD260918C00195000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike195.00
Volume326
OI39
IV0.83
ContractMOD260821C00240000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike240.00
Volume207
OI434
IV0.81
ContractMOD260821C00260000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike260.00
Volume146
OI470
IV0.83
ContractMOD260821C00300000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike300.00
Volume104
OI3870
IV0.92
ContractMOD260821P00230000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume101
OI443
IV0.80
ContractMOD260821P00200000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume65
OI583
IV0.83
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.