Ticker Options Intelligence

ULTA options intelligence

Ulta Beauty Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 34 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:40 · partial chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ULTA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 8.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.59

Call-side skew

Trend fit 31

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +7.9%

RS -15.2

Expected move 8.3%
Put-call volume 0.59
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.31
Max pain 477.50
Underlying 475.36
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 2000

Research Brief

ULTA has a bullish chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 435.71–515.01; The largest call open-interest concentration is 520.00; the largest put concentration is 470.00. The most active strike by current volume is 520.00.

Priced range435.71–515.01
Call concentration520.00
Put concentration470.00
Max pain reference477.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 435.71 to 515.01. Max pain at 477.50 sits inside that range, 0.5% above spot.

Spot Max pain
435.71475.36 ± 39.65515.01
Confirmation level

A close beyond 515.01 or below 435.71 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 34/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 28/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure28 × 42%
+11.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement31 × 26%
+8.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility55 × 10%
+5.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score34.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 520.00; the largest put concentration is 470.00. The most active strike by current volume is 520.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
57
350.00-26.4%
10
81
360.00-24.3%
0
68
395.00-16.9%
7
66
405.00-14.8%
6
4
425.00-10.6%
1
16
430.00-9.5%
33
33
445.00-6.4%
24
130
450.00-5.3%
4
77
455.00-4.3%
3
24
465.00-2.2%
20
208
470.00-1.1%
3
79
475.00-0.1%
4
78
480.001.0%
14
13
485.002.0%
93
13
500.005.2%
23
1
502.505.7%
85
4
520.009.4%
127
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.72× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.31 7 Aug 7d
0.37 14 Aug 14d
0.35 21 Aug 21d
0.51 28 Aug 28d
0.46 4 Sep 35d
0.45 11 Sep 42d
0.44 18 Sep 49d
0.39 20 Nov 112d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

385
400
418
425
435
443
450
460
468
478
485
493
503
510
520
528
535
545
553
563
570
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain97%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
2000 / 2068
  • 97% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

67/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+28
1W price+7.9%
Call premium53%
Put premium47%
Notional split C 53% / P 47% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 31/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 414 contracts traded, $909705 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$909705
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 735 contracts traded, $316550 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$316550
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $283220 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$283220
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 180 contracts traded, $257718 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$257718
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 117 contracts traded, $88572 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$88572

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close512.83
1W+7.9%
RS-15.2
Fair value+10.8%
Options pressure28
Speculation41
Volatility55
Trend fit31

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.31 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.59 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:18 Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 10:13 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 7.3%
31 Jul 10:05 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 9.1%
1 Aug 03:57 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 8.0%
1 Aug 05:40 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 8.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike330.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike340.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike350.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 57
Strike360.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 81
Strike370.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike380.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike385.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike390.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts192
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.89
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts192
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.03
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts128
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.31
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.51
Put-call116.00
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.46
Put-call20.60

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.20
Skew-0.09
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.41
Skew0.08
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.35
Skew0.06
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.52
Skew0.05
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractULTA260814C00567500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike567.50
Volume272
OI-
IV0.17
ContractULTA260904P00500000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike500.00
Volume189
OI16
IV0.47
ContractULTA260828P00500000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike500.00
Volume178
OI2
IV0.49
ContractULTA260814C00565000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike565.00
Volume166
OI-
IV0.41
ContractULTA260821C00530000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike530.00
Volume76
OI111
IV0.34
ContractULTA260814C00545000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike545.00
Volume72
OI6
IV0.39
ContractULTA260918C00550000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike550.00
Volume66
OI244
IV0.41
ContractULTA260807C00520000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike520.00
Volume62
OI127
IV0.35