- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
ULTA
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Ulta Beauty Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Latest close
512.8 USD
7.9%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 25.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.9%, after a 11.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 34/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 25d.
Setup score
35
out of 100
Latest Close
512.8 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
7.9%
latest completed week
4W Return
11.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-1.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
63.5%
33 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
7.9%
Latest completed week; four-week move 11.2%.
Indicator stack
35/44
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Bullish
34/100 conviction; expected move 8.3%.
News sentiment
55/100
61 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
25d
Next report is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 25.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.9%, after a 11.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0212-week average 0.06
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.02Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 11.2% over four weeks, -1.7% over 12 weeks, and 1.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year33
Trend breadth63.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.48Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change35.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-15.16Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change45.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 30 Apr 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 97%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength39/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Value33/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
Quality90/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Momentum22/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Growth84/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework65/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 17.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.6x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.9x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 9.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 39.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 12.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 16.1% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 25.4% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 11.3% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -0.3% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 16.4% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 5.2% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 5.2% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
ULTA shows bullish options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.59, expected move of 8.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction34/100
Expected move8.3%
Put/call volume0.59
Insider activity18 / 2
18 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 61 relevant articles.
22 positive · 37 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings25dNext report is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-28.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.9%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-17.1%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+7.9%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses6
Recent vol4.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.6% / -3.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank15 / 100
Group average1.4%
Trend breadth37.0%
Trend37.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS34.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Specialty Retail
4-week rank6 / 44
Group average-2.0%
Trend breadth29.5%
Trend29.5%active weekly trend signals
MD54.5%positive activity pressure
RS22.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape30/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 30/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis9/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.02; No reversal markers Factors46/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 11 SVQF65/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 251.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options48/100ULTA shows bullish options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.59, expected move of 8.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 8.3% Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 61 relevant articles.
Suspect Accused Of Stealing $3,200 Worth Of Cosmetics From Ulta Beauty In Westport: Police Insiders18 / 218 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings25dNext report is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 512.8 USD | 7.9% | 554.9 USD | 462.8 USD | -0.48 | -15.16 | 2.6M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 475.4 USD | -0.9% | 558.4 USD | 462.3 USD | -0.71 | -21.23 | 3.0M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 479.6 USD | 2.2% | 562.8 USD | 462.1 USD | -0.65 | -22.17 | 2.9M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 469.2 USD | 1.7% | 566.8 USD | 462.0 USD | -0.70 | -27.32 | 2.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 461.3 USD | -5.6% | 571.2 USD | 462.0 USD | -0.75 | -27.58 | 3.1M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 488.4 USD | 7.1% | 575.9 USD | 462.1 USD | -0.78 | -23.02 | 4.5M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 456.1 USD | -2.5% | 577.6 USD | 462.0 USD | -0.97 | -31.57 | 3.7M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 467.7 USD | 0.1% | 579.5 USD | 462.0 USD | -1.00 | -28.39 | 3.4M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 467.1 USD | -8.2% | 581.6 USD | 461.8 USD | -0.99 | -27.19 | 7.7M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 508.9 USD | -1.2% | 583.3 USD | 461.6 USD | -0.99 | -24.60 | 2.9M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 515.0 USD | 4.2% | 583.6 USD | 461.0 USD | -0.95 | -21.84 | 3.7M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 494.3 USD | -5.2% | 583.7 USD | 460.4 USD | -0.94 | -24.21 | 3.7M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 521.6 USD | -1.9% | 585.0 USD | 460.4 USD | -0.88 | -20.45 | 3.3M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 532.0 USD | -4.8% | 586.0 USD | 460.3 USD | -0.94 | -14.53 | 3.4M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.