- The trend backdrop is active with a 2-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
CMG
NYSE
Week ended 11 Sep 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Latest close
36.20 USD
-2.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 55.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.1%, after a 8.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 50/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 42d.
Setup score
41
out of 100
Latest Close
36.20 USD
11 Sep 2026
1W Return
-2.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
8.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
11.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
3.8%
2 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.4x
vs 13-week average
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move 8.1%.
Indicator stack
9/72
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Bullish
50/100 conviction; expected move 4.3%.
News sentiment
51/100
147 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
42d
Next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 55.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.1%, after a 8.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3912-week average 0.19
12-week confirmation
Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.39Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 8.1% over four weeks, 11.4% over 12 weeks, and -6.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 2 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak2 weeks
Active weeks in one year2
Trend breadth3.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.04Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change42.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-6.66Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change60.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 11 Sep 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 97%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength14/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Value6/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Quality90/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Momentum20/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Growth72/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework27/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 32.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 3.7x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.2x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 3.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 24.1% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 15.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 12.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 19.4% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 7.3% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -7.9% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 7.0% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 6.1% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 6.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.3x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
CMG shows bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.22, expected move of 4.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction50/100
Expected move4.3%
Put/call volume0.22
Insider activity11 / 7
11 acquisitions and 7 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 147 relevant articles.
29 positive · 97 neutral · 21 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings42dNext report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-15.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
20 Mar
17 Apr
15 May
12 Jun
10 Jul
7 Aug
11 Sep
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+17.1%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-11.9%Week of 7 Aug.
Latest week-2.1%Week of 11 Sep.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses5
Recent vol7.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.3% / -4.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank2 / 100
Group average-6.8%
Trend breadth45.0%
Trend45.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS22.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Restaurants
4-week rank5 / 51
Group average-1.4%
Trend breadth47.1%
Trend47.1%active weekly trend signals
MD54.9%positive activity pressure
RS23.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape36/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 36/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis41/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.39; No reversal markers Factors32/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 8 SVQF27/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 741.5 of 1017 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options56/100CMG shows bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.22, expected move of 4.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.3% Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 147 relevant articles.
Seaport Global initiates Chipotle stock with neutral rating Insiders11 / 711 acquisitions and 7 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings42dNext report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 36.20 USD | -2.1% | 34.10 USD | 46.96 USD | 1.04 | -6.66 | 37.3M | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 36.96 USD | -2.8% | 34.10 USD | 46.97 USD | 0.94 | -5.86 | 57.8M | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 38.03 USD | 3.1% | 34.18 USD | 46.99 USD | 0.93 | -3.62 | 64.8M | Off |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 36.90 USD | 10.1% | 34.21 USD | 46.99 USD | 1.00 | -6.62 | 87.6M | Off |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 33.50 USD | 2.2% | 34.34 USD | 47.00 USD | 0.73 | -17.01 | 81.7M | Off |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 32.79 USD | -11.9% | 34.56 USD | 47.02 USD | 0.85 | -19.22 | 128.9M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 37.22 USD | 17.1% | 34.80 USD | 47.04 USD | 0.89 | -5.90 | 95.9M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 31.79 USD | -7.7% | 34.81 USD | 47.05 USD | 0.85 | -19.31 | 82.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 34.44 USD | -2.3% | 35.01 USD | 47.09 USD | 1.12 | -14.06 | 95.9M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 35.25 USD | -0.4% | 35.12 USD | 47.14 USD | 0.99 | -14.64 | 76.6M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 35.39 USD | 6.1% | 35.15 USD | 47.18 USD | 0.76 | -14.45 | 66.0M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 33.34 USD | 2.6% | 35.10 USD | 47.21 USD | 0.32 | -18.92 | 131.7M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 32.49 USD | 0.8% | 35.14 USD | 47.28 USD | -0.09 | -24.02 | 80.5M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 32.23 USD | 9.9% | 35.11 USD | 47.33 USD | -0.25 | -25.10 | 94.2M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.