Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
CMG options intelligence
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:03 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
CMG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 20.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.17.
Expected move
20.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.17
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.11
Balanced tape
Trend fit
71
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+17.1%
RS -5.9
Expected move
20.6%
Put-call volume
1.11
Volume / OI
0.17
Reference IV
1.52
Max pain
33.00
Underlying
31.79
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1058
Research Brief
CMG has a mixed chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 25.26–38.32; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.
Priced range25.26–38.32
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference33.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 25.26 to 38.32. Max pain at 33.00 sits inside that range, 3.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
25.2631.79 ± 6.5338.32
Confirmation level
A close beyond 38.32 or below 25.26 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 2/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure2 × 42%
+0.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation44 × 22%
+9.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1800
28.00-11.9%
8
1930
29.00-8.8%
122
2109
30.00-5.6%
264
1533
31.00-2.5%
46
1876
32.000.7%
803
929
33.003.8%
1462
485
34.007.0%
1182
107
34.508.5%
747
725
35.0010.1%
6756
104
36.0013.2%
3544
150
37.0016.4%
3545
120
37.5018.0%
1159
26
38.0019.5%
4642
24
38.5021.1%
165
30
39.0022.7%
962
1
39.5024.3%
73
36
40.0025.8%
3969
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.52
31 Jul
1d
0.86
7 Aug
8d
0.52
14 Aug
15d
0.41
21 Aug
22d
0.50
28 Aug
29d
0.44
4 Sep
36d
0.26
11 Sep
43d
0.44
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
26
27
28
28
29
30
30
31
31
32
33
33
34
34
35
35
36
37
37
38
38
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1058 / 1058
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $15.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-2
1W price+17.1%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.17
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
71/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 2184 contracts traded, $3.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$3.1M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 12001 contracts traded, $3.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$3.1M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 23656 contracts traded, $3.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$3.1M
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 8161 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 2246 contracts traded, $850076 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$850076
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close37.22
1W+17.1%
RS-5.9
Fair value-20.9%
Options pressure-2
Speculation44
Volatility96
Trend fit71
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:11
Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 10.1%
30 Jul 10:06
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 10.1%
31 Jul 10:03
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 20.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 2 · OI 7
Strike21.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 31
Strike22.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 7
Strike23.00
Calls · V 9 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Strike24.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 59
Strike25.00
Calls · V 46 · OI 63
Puts · V 5 · OI 481
Strike26.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 32
Puts · V 12 · OI 609
Strike27.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 31
Puts · V 5 · OI 420
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV1.52
Put-call0.22
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.26
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.52
Put-call22.31
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.42
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.39
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV1.64
Skew1.13
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.63
Skew0.24
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.60
Skew0.23
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.52
Skew0.18
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.43
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCMG260814P00026000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike26.00
Volume41136
OI41427
IV0.78
ContractCMG260731C00040000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike40.00
Volume2558
OI3969
IV0.52
ContractCMG260731C00039500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike39.50
Volume2182
OI73
IV0.51
ContractCMG260731C00039000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike39.00
Volume2144
OI962
IV0.54
ContractCMG260731C00037000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike37.00
Volume1669
OI3545
IV0.68
ContractCMG260731C00035000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike35.00
Volume1531
OI6756
IV1.17
ContractCMG260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1459
OI11055
IV0.35
ContractCMG260807C00040000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1354
OI2291
IV0.39
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.