Ticker Options Intelligence

TKO options intelligence

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 05:23 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TKO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 8.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.06

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.07

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -2.4%

RS -13.9

Expected move 8.8%
Put-call volume 0.07
Volume / OI 0.06
Reference IV 0.45
Max pain 190.00
Underlying 180.62
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 306

Research Brief

TKO has a bullish chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 164.72–196.52; The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 200.00.

Priced range164.72–196.52
Call concentration200.00
Put concentration170.00
Max pain reference190.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 164.72 to 196.52. Max pain at 190.00 sits inside that range, 5.2% above spot.

Spot Max pain
164.72180.62 ± 15.90196.52
Confirmation level

A close beyond 196.52 or below 164.72 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 95/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure95 × 42%
+39.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation17 × 22%
+3.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility67 × 10%
+6.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 200.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
140.00-22.5%
1
11
145.00-19.7%
1
7
150.00-17.0%
1
27
155.00-14.2%
0
152
165.00-8.6%
0
508
170.00-5.9%
0
31
175.00-3.1%
1
109
180.00-0.3%
31
26
185.002.4%
52
15
190.005.2%
141
34
195.008.0%
14
67
200.0010.7%
569
1
210.0016.3%
171
0
220.0021.8%
211
0
230.0027.3%
123
0
250.0038.4%
43
0
270.0049.5%
57
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.12× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.45 21 Aug 21d
0.40 18 Sep 49d
0.39 16 Oct 77d
0.40 15 Jan 168d
0.40 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
306 / 306
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

87/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $150036 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+95
1W price-2.4%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split C 83% / P 17% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.06 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 438 contracts traded, $82172 estimated gross traded notional, and 55% of visible notional.
$82172
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $30930 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$30930
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $9025 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$9025
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 9 contracts traded, $7815 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$7815
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $6075 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$6075

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close180.62
1W-2.4%
RS-13.9
Fair value+26.0%
Options pressure95
Speculation17
Volatility67
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.45 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.07 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.06 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:22 Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 10:16 Bearish
Pressure -37
Move 9.9%
31 Jul 10:10 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 9.1%
1 Aug 04:23 Bullish
Pressure 95
Move 8.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 7
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 27
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 152
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 508

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.33
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts84
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.17
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts70
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.46
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.43
Skew0.05
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.41
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.41
Skew0.05
21 Jan 2028Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.42
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTKO260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume423
OI569
IV0.42
ContractTKO260821P00165000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume10
OI152
IV0.48
ContractTKO260821C00185000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike185.00
Volume9
OI52
IV0.46
ContractTKO260821P00185000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike185.00
Volume8
OI26
IV0.42
ContractTKO270115C00135000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike135.00
Volume6
OI3
IV0.40
ContractTKO260821C00220000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume4
OI211
IV0.43
ContractTKO260821C00210000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume4
OI171
IV0.45
ContractTKO260821C00190000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike190.00
Volume3
OI141
IV0.45