Ticker Options Intelligence

BGS options intelligence

B&G Foods Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 49 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 13:38 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

BGS currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 18.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.02

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.6%

RS -25.0

Expected move 18.4%
Put-call volume 0.02
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.95
Max pain 4.00
Underlying 3.53
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 96

Research Brief

BGS has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.88–4.18; The largest call open-interest concentration is 4.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 4.00.

Priced range2.88–4.18
Call concentration4.00
Put concentration4.00
Max pain reference4.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 2.88 to 4.18. Max pain at 4.00 sits inside that range, 13.3% above spot.

Spot Max pain
2.883.53 ± 0.654.18
Confirmation level

A close beyond 4.18 or below 2.88 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 49/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 92/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure92 × 42%
+38.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation3 × 22%
+0.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score49.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 4.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 4.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
801
1.00-71.7%
6
119
2.00-43.3%
1
434
3.00-15.0%
32
1247
4.0013.3%
2886
380
5.0041.6%
926
0
6.0070.0%
639
0
7.0098.3%
196
0
8.00126.6%
111
0
9.00155.0%
0
0
10.00183.3%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 99% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile-$21,304Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak6.00+$2,156
Negative peak3.00-$16,878
Nearest balance5.71Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-71.7%
-$124
2.00-43.3%
-$100
3.00-15.0%
-$16,878
4.0013.3%
-$2,069
5.0041.6%
-$5,221
6.0070.0%
+$2,156
7.0098.3%
+$668
8.00126.6%
+$130
9.00155.0%
+$16
10.00183.3%
+$118
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.63× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.95 21 Aug 21d
0.69 18 Sep 49d
0.59 20 Nov 112d
0.54 15 Jan 168d
0.58 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

3
4
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
96 / 96
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

95/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9,820 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+92
1W price+0.6%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split C 83% / P 17% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 997 contracts traded, $7,290 estimated gross traded notional, and 74% of visible notional.
$7,290
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $820 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$820
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $770 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$770
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 38 contracts traded, $400 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$400
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $180 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$180

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close3.53
1W+0.6%
RS-25.0
Fair value-38.3%
Options pressure92
Speculation3
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 18.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.95 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:36 Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 15.7%
30 Jul 11:15 Bullish
Pressure 71
Move 15.7%
31 Jul 05:00 Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 15.7%
1 Aug 00:27 Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 18.5%
2 Aug 12:38 Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 18.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 801
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 119
Strike3.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 32
Puts · V 0 · OI 434
Strike4.00
Calls · V 922 · OI 2886
Puts · V 0 · OI 1247
Strike5.00
Calls · V 75 · OI 926
Puts · V 0 · OI 380
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 639
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 196
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 111
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.95
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.78
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.59
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.54
Put-call1.33
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.58
Put-call4.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.22
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.62
Skew0.14
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.54
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.60
Skew0.11
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.57
Skew0.09

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBGS260821C00004000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume922
OI2886
IV0.68
ContractBGS260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume75
OI926
IV0.79
ContractBGS261120C00005000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume30
OI544
IV0.54
ContractBGS260918P00004000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike4.00
Volume14
OI484
IV0.48
ContractBGS260918C00004000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike4.00
Volume12
OI554
IV0.48
ContractBGS261120C00004000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike4.00
Volume6
OI285
IV0.48
ContractBGS260918C00006000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike6.00
Volume4
OI896
IV0.72
ContractBGS260821C00003000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume3
OI32
IV0.79