Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
IONQ options intelligence
IONQ Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:44 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
IONQ currently carries bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
16.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.56
Call-side skew
Trend fit
21
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+11.0%
RS -29.5
Expected move
16.2%
Put-call volume
0.56
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
1.21
Max pain
38.00
Underlying
32.84
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1098
Research Brief
IONQ has a bullish chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 27.53–38.15; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 38.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.
Priced range27.53–38.15
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration38.00
Max pain reference38.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 27.53 to 38.15. Max pain at 38.00 sits inside that range, 15.7% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
27.5332.84 ± 5.3138.15
Confirmation level
A close beyond 38.15 or below 27.53 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 29/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure29 × 42%
+12.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement21 × 26%
+5.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 38.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
655
18.00-45.2%
0
3873
20.00-39.1%
2
5550
21.00-36.1%
0
1
22.00-33.0%
0
229
28.00-14.7%
4
3215
29.50-10.2%
2
496
30.00-8.6%
25
555
35.006.6%
1472
246
36.009.6%
319
164
37.0012.7%
897
11790
38.0015.7%
316
41
39.0018.8%
371
413
40.0021.8%
1162
109
42.0027.9%
345
157
45.0037.0%
2348
56
47.0043.1%
1352
96
50.0052.3%
2381
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.21
7 Aug
7d
1.12
14 Aug
14d
1.05
21 Aug
21d
1.02
28 Aug
28d
1.01
4 Sep
35d
0.99
11 Sep
42d
0.99
18 Sep
49d
0.98
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
31
32
32
33
34
34
35
36
36
37
37
38
39
39
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1098 / 1098
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $8.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+29
1W price+11.0%
Call premium77%
Put premium23%
Notional split
C 77% / P 23%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
21/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 3797 contracts traded, $2.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$2.2M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 4252 contracts traded, $1.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$1.7M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 8195 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1380 contracts traded, $625256 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$625256
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1778 contracts traded, $546814 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$546814
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close36.44
1W+11.0%
RS-29.5
Fair value+25.2%
Options pressure29
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit21
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:15
Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 8.8%
30 Jul 10:11
Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 7.7%
30 Jul 17:15
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 7.5%
1 Aug 05:44
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 16.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1357 · OI 655
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 2165 · OI 3873
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 61 · OI 5550
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1500 · OI 1
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike23.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 50
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts168
Avg IV1.21
Put-call1.09
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts156
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.57
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV1.05
Put-call0.57
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV1.02
Put-call0.38
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV1.01
Put-call0.10
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.26
Put IV1.28
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.14
Put IV1.13
Skew-0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.06
Put IV1.05
Skew-0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.07
Put IV1.03
Skew-0.04
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.01
Put IV1.02
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractIONQ260807P00020000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume2165
OI3873
IV1.68
ContractIONQ260807C00050000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume1667
OI2381
IV1.38
ContractIONQ260807P00022000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume1500
OI1
IV1.82
ContractIONQ260807C00040000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1461
OI1162
IV1.24
ContractIONQ260807P00018000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume1357
OI655
IV1.96
ContractIONQ261218C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1032
OI1455
IV0.99
ContractIONQ261016C00035000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume1029
OI918
IV0.97
ContractIONQ261218C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume1013
OI2995
IV1.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.