Ticker Options Intelligence

BBVA options intelligence

Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 3 Aug 2026 11:17 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

BBVA currently carries bearish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 10.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.19

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 6.01

Put-side skew

Trend fit 17

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +7.7%

RS 19.6

Expected move 10.4%
Put-call volume 6.01
Volume / OI 0.19
Reference IV 0.31
Max pain 22.50
Underlying 27.95
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 50

Research Brief

BBVA has a bearish chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 25.05–30.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range25.05–30.85
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference22.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 25.05 to 30.85. Max pain at 22.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
25.0527.95 ± 2.9030.85
Confirmation level

A close beyond 30.85 or below 25.05 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 83/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure83 × 42%
+35.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation12 × 22%
+2.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement17 × 26%
+4.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility62 × 10%
+6.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score48.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
20.00-28.4%
0
0
22.50-19.5%
14
5
25.00-10.6%
14
0
30.007.3%
51
0
35.0025.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 88% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$18,495Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak30.00+$18,827
Negative peak20.00-$13,432
Nearest balance22.95Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-55.3%
-$6
15.00-46.3%
+$164
17.50-37.4%
-$1,731
20.00-28.4%
-$13,432
22.50-19.5%
-$3,971
25.00-10.6%
+$18,255
30.007.3%
+$18,827
35.0025.2%
+$390
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.17× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.31 21 Aug 21d
0.34 18 Sep 49d
0.30 16 Oct 77d
0.27 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

23
25
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
50 / 50
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

89/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $24,615 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-83
1W price+7.7%
Call premium31%
Put premium69%
Notional split C 31% / P 69% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.19 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 17/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 451 contracts traded, $16,912 estimated gross traded notional, and 69% of visible notional.
$16,912
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 60 contracts traded, $4,500 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$4,500
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,915 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1,915
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $1,238 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1,238
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $50 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$50

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close27.95
1W+7.7%
RS19.6
Fair value+103.4%
Options pressure-83
Speculation12
Volatility62
Trend fit17

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.31 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 6.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.19 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:01 Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 11.0%
30 Jul 10:01 Volatility
Pressure -100
Move 14.7%
31 Jul 10:00 Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 11.3%
1 Aug 11:51 Bearish
Pressure -83
Move 9.6%
3 Aug 10:17 Bearish
Pressure -83
Move 10.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike30.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 51
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.27
Put-call41.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.09
Put IV0.15
Skew0.06
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.59
Skew0.52
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.32
Skew0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBBVA270115P00020000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume451
OI866
IV0.43
ContractBBVA261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume60
OI123
IV0.07
ContractBBVA270115C00030000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume9
OI107
IV0.27
ContractBBVA260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume4
OI51
IV0.26
ContractBBVA270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume1
OI10
IV0.40
ContractBBVA270115C00017500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.50
Volume1
OI1
IV0.01
ContractBBVA261016P00017500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI672
IV0.42
ContractBBVA261016C00025000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI377
IV0.37