Ticker Options Intelligence

YUMC options intelligence

Yum China Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 35 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 01:12 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

YUMC currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 10.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.92

Balanced tape

Trend fit 52

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +11.0%

RS -4.7

Expected move 10.5%
Put-call volume 0.92
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.50
Max pain 45.00
Underlying 43.40
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 144

Research Brief

YUMC has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 38.85–47.95; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 37.50. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.

Priced range38.85–47.95
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration37.50
Max pain reference45.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 38.85 to 47.95. Max pain at 45.00 sits inside that range, 3.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
38.8543.40 ± 4.5547.95
Confirmation level

A close beyond 47.95 or below 38.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 35/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 11/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement52 × 26%
+13.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility75 × 10%
+7.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score34.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 37.50. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
30.00-30.9%
0
5
32.50-25.1%
0
4
35.00-19.4%
2
668
37.50-13.6%
1
396
40.00-7.8%
1
139
42.50-2.1%
19
10
45.003.7%
592
14
47.509.4%
612
30
50.0015.2%
1287
0
52.5021.0%
19
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.25× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.50 21 Aug 22d
0.40 18 Sep 50d
0.44 16 Oct 78d
0.40 15 Jan 169d
0.39 19 Mar 232d
0.34 17 Jun 322d
0.36 17 Sep 414d
0.40 17 Dec 505d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

35
38
40
43
45
48
50
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
144 / 144
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

77/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $399126 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+11
1W price+11.0%
Call premium57%
Put premium43%
Notional split C 57% / P 43% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 52/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 325 contracts traded, $128223 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$128223
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 206 contracts traded, $69445 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$69445
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 58 contracts traded, $62708 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$62708
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 36 contracts traded, $54500 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$54500
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 24 contracts traded, $17190 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$17190

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close48.18
1W+11.0%
RS-4.7
Fair value+11.5%
Options pressure11
Speculation41
Volatility75
Trend fit52

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.5% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.50 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.92 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:22 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 9.3%
30 Jul 10:19 Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 11.8%
31 Jul 00:12 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 10.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike35.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike37.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 668
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 29 · OI 396
Strike42.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 19
Puts · V 9 · OI 139
Strike45.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 592
Puts · V 4 · OI 10
Strike47.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 612
Puts · V 10 · OI 14

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts17
Avg IV0.50
Put-call2.27
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.14
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.49
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts41
Avg IV0.40
Put-call1.40
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts17
Avg IV0.39
Put-call3.63

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.06
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.47
Skew0.11
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.47
Skew0.02
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractYUMC270617P00032500
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike32.50
Volume-
OI30
IV0.60
ContractYUMC270617P00035000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI30
IV0.54
ContractYUMC270319P00045000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.41
ContractYUMC260918P00037500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike37.50
Volume-
OI12
IV0.44
ContractYUMC270617P00040000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.46
ContractYUMC271217P00052500
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike52.50
Volume-
OI10
IV0.47
ContractYUMC270319P00025000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.56
ContractYUMC260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.79