Ticker Options Intelligence

ROIV options intelligence

Roivant Sciences Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 23:20 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ROIV currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 11.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.06

Call-side skew

Trend fit 9

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -3.1%

RS 30.8

Expected move 11.9%
Put-call volume 0.06
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.64
Max pain 28.00
Underlying 33.91
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 556

Research Brief

ROIV has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 29.86–37.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 33.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.

Priced range29.86–37.96
Call concentration33.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference28.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 29.86 to 37.96. Max pain at 28.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
29.8633.91 ± 4.0537.96
Confirmation level

A close beyond 37.96 or below 29.86 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 95/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure95 × 42%
+40.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation6 × 22%
+1.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement9 × 26%
+2.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 33.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
57
19.00-44.0%
0
14
20.00-41.0%
50
32
23.00-32.2%
64
1
24.00-29.2%
32
314
25.00-26.3%
5
555
26.00-23.3%
103
103
27.00-20.4%
7
301
28.00-17.4%
1063
8
29.00-14.5%
109
624
30.00-11.5%
570
68
31.00-8.6%
6
122
32.00-5.6%
306
2
33.00-2.7%
4042
9
35.003.2%
33
6
36.006.2%
43
0
37.009.1%
86
0
40.0018.0%
23
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.36× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.64 21 Aug 21d
0.61 18 Sep 49d
0.56 16 Oct 77d
0.51 20 Nov 112d
0.51 18 Dec 140d
0.51 15 Jan 168d
0.50 19 Feb 203d
0.49 17 Jun 321d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
556 / 556
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

90/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $20200 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+95
1W price-3.1%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split C 93% / P 7% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 9/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 10 Aug Matched earnings event is 8 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $11050 estimated gross traded notional, and 55% of visible notional.
$11050
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $4450 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$4450
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $2115 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2115
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1330 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1330
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $738 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$738

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close33.91
1W-3.1%
RS30.8
Fair value+121.1%
Options pressure95
Speculation6
Volatility84
Trend fit9

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 11.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.64 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.06 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:18 Volatility
Pressure 61
Move 11.9%
30 Jul 12:08 Mixed
Pressure -6
Move 12.3%
30 Jul 15:01 Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 11.7%
30 Jul 15:56 Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 11.7%
31 Jul 13:45 Bearish
Pressure -54
Move 10.3%
31 Jul 14:59 Volatility
Pressure -53
Move 12.1%
1 Aug 22:20 Volatility
Pressure 95
Move 11.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 57
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 50
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 24

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.09
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.61
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.89
Put IV0.68
Skew-0.21
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.63
Skew0.06
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.63
Skew0.12
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.60
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.58
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractROIV260821C00023000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike23.00
Volume10
OI64
IV0.91
ContractROIV260821C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume9
OI23
IV0.63
ContractROIV260918C00039000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike39.00
Volume3
OI4
IV0.55
ContractROIV270115C00012000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.00
Volume2
OI96
IV0.84
ContractROIV280121C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike35.00
Volume2
OI75
IV0.50
ContractROIV260821C00038000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike38.00
Volume2
OI17
IV0.89
ContractROIV260821P00040000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume2
OI-
IV0.75
ContractROIV260821C00037000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike37.00
Volume1
OI86
IV0.17