Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
NCLH options intelligence
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:20 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
NCLH currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
4.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.79
Balanced tape
Trend fit
57
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.5%
RS -16.1
Expected move
4.2%
Put-call volume
0.79
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.54
Max pain
20.00
Underlying
19.37
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
588
Research Brief
NCLH has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 18.55–20.19; The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 19.50. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.
Priced range18.55–20.19
Call concentration21.00
Put concentration19.50
Max pain reference20.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 18.55 to 20.19. Max pain at 20.00 sits inside that range, 3.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
18.5519.37 ± 0.8220.19
Confirmation level
A close beyond 20.19 or below 18.55 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 14/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure14 × 42%
+5.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility55 × 10%
+5.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 19.50. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
635
16.00-17.4%
104
1012
16.50-14.8%
3
1249
17.00-12.2%
42
1523
17.50-9.7%
102
759
18.00-7.1%
90
2985
18.50-4.5%
54
911
19.00-1.9%
245
4103
19.500.7%
2401
1565
20.003.3%
4044
1348
20.505.8%
2351
2490
21.008.4%
4346
285
21.5011.0%
738
14
22.0013.6%
1563
115
22.5016.2%
510
65
23.0018.7%
2196
3
24.0023.9%
504
11
25.0029.1%
368
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.54
31 Jul
1d
0.52
7 Aug
8d
0.50
14 Aug
15d
0.50
21 Aug
22d
0.49
28 Aug
29d
0.50
4 Sep
36d
0.41
11 Sep
43d
0.49
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
23
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 588 / 588
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.4M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+14
1W price-0.5%
Call premium52%
Put premium48%
Notional split
C 52% / P 48%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
57/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 3777 contracts traded, $596771 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$596771
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1780 contracts traded, $366797 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$366797
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1720 contracts traded, $268270 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$268270
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1846 contracts traded, $146554 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$146554
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 226 contracts traded, $126978 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$126978
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The signal is live, but the strongest framework tags are still developing.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close19.37
1W-0.5%
RS-16.1
Fair value-3.5%
Options pressure14
Speculation41
Volatility55
Trend fit57
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:30
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 11.0%
30 Jul 10:25
Volatility
Pressure -18
Move 9.4%
31 Jul 10:20
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 4.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike10.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 32
Puts · V 32 · OI 4
Strike11.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 27
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 18 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike14.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 8
Puts · V 7 · OI 17
Strike15.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 123
Puts · V 2 · OI 165
Strike15.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 35
Strike16.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 104
Puts · V 0 · OI 635
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.88
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.52
Put-call1.05
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.68
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.50
Put-call1.31
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.55
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.55
Skew-0.24
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.60
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.59
Skew0.07
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.51
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.51
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNCLH260807C00020000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume1709
OI415
IV0.57
ContractNCLH260807P00017000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume1453
OI63
IV0.52
ContractNCLH270115C00025000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike25.00
Volume1394
OI16270
IV0.51
ContractNCLH260918P00018000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume1176
OI8780
IV0.49
ContractNCLH260731C00020000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike20.00
Volume1056
OI4044
IV0.87
ContractNCLH270115P00017000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.00
Volume1013
OI7947
IV0.52
ContractNCLH260731P00018000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike18.00
Volume861
OI759
IV0.66
ContractNCLH260918C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike19.00
Volume755
OI2798
IV0.49
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.