- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 59.94% based on similar historical setup states.
NCLH
NYSE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Latest close
18.53 USD
-4.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 31.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.3%, after a -6.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 46/100.
Setup score
33
out of 100
Latest Close
18.53 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-4.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
-6.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
8.5%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
21.2%
11 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.2x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move -6.3%.
Indicator stack
12/49
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 59.94%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
40/100 conviction; expected move 5.6%.
News sentiment
46/100
58 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
30 Jul
Latest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 31.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.3%, after a -6.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2712-week average 0.12
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.27Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -6.3% over four weeks, 8.5% over 12 weeks, and -24.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year11
Trend breadth21.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.19Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-57.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-19.88Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-18.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 93%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength79/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 22; rank 1 is best.
Value79/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 22; rank 1 is best.
Quality80/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Momentum18/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Growth17/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework39/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 15.7x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.9x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.0x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 22.6% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 43.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 13.3% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 53.8% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 7.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 6.5% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -33.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 22.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -1.6% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -1.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 6.3x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
NCLH shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.38, expected move of 5.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction40/100
Expected move5.6%
Put/call volume0.38
Insider activity17 / 0
17 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment46/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 58 relevant articles.
10 positive · 30 neutral · 18 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings30 JulLatest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
Options expected move5.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-31.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+13.1%Week of 20 Feb.
Worst week-19.1%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-4.3%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses8
Recent vol6.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.7% / -5.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average1.4%
Trend breadth37.0%
Trend37.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS34.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Travel Services
4-week rank14 / 17
Group average-1.8%
Trend breadth47.1%
Trend47.1%active weekly trend signals
MD76.5%positive activity pressure
RS41.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape31/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 31/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis24/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.27; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 59.94%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 59.94% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors65/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 78; Small Cap Core rank 36 SVQF39/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 619.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options48/100NCLH shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.38, expected move of 5.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 5.6% Sentiment46/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 58 relevant articles.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Stock Faces Leverage Doubts Despite Profit Rebound Insiders17 / 017 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings30 JulLatest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 18.53 USD | -4.3% | 20.02 USD | 20.07 USD | 0.19 | -19.88 | 112.9M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 19.37 USD | -0.5% | 20.17 USD | 20.07 USD | 0.16 | -16.12 | 58.1M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 19.46 USD | -0.8% | 20.28 USD | 20.08 USD | 0.37 | -16.82 | 49.5M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 19.61 USD | -0.9% | 20.40 USD | 20.09 USD | 0.46 | -18.06 | 72.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 19.78 USD | -6.9% | 20.44 USD | 20.10 USD | 0.43 | -16.76 | 70.9M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 21.24 USD | 3.9% | 20.41 USD | 20.11 USD | 0.16 | -9.17 | 100.0M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 20.44 USD | 5.2% | 20.32 USD | 20.12 USD | -0.27 | -14.88 | 84.3M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 19.43 USD | 3.6% | 20.25 USD | 20.11 USD | -0.60 | -18.56 | 97.3M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 18.75 USD | 2.2% | 20.21 USD | 20.11 USD | -0.90 | -21.15 | 102.2M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 18.34 USD | 12.5% | 20.22 USD | 20.10 USD | -0.84 | -25.14 | 99.3M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 16.30 USD | 5.0% | 20.36 USD | 20.08 USD | -0.79 | -32.75 | 122.6M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 15.52 USD | -9.1% | 20.59 USD | 20.07 USD | -0.78 | -35.72 | 119.4M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 17.08 USD | -9.2% | 20.84 USD | 20.06 USD | -0.65 | -29.60 | 166.9M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 18.81 USD | 1.6% | 21.02 USD | 20.04 USD | -0.70 | -21.04 | 101.9M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.