Ticker Options Intelligence

GEO options intelligence

Geo Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 53 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 06:51 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

GEO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 11.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.46

Call-side skew

Trend fit 63

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.1%

RS 42.8

Expected move 11.8%
Put-call volume 0.46
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.62
Max pain 24.00
Underlying 30.89
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 442

Research Brief

GEO has a volatility chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 27.24–34.54; The largest call open-interest concentration is 33.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.

Priced range27.24–34.54
Call concentration33.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference24.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 27.24 to 34.54. Max pain at 24.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
27.2430.89 ± 3.6534.54
Confirmation level

A close beyond 34.54 or below 27.24 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 53/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 47/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure47 × 42%
+19.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement63 × 26%
+16.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score53.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 33.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
29
19.00-38.5%
201
69
20.00-35.3%
394
34
23.00-25.5%
90
63
24.00-22.3%
2510
97
25.00-19.1%
164
30
26.00-15.8%
10006
227
27.00-12.6%
96
371
28.00-9.4%
9083
44
29.00-6.1%
422
673
30.00-2.9%
3499
60
31.000.4%
2395
13
32.003.6%
2449
1
33.006.8%
12428
1
34.0010.1%
12090
484
35.0013.3%
2641
4
37.0019.8%
574
0
40.0029.5%
2114
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.10× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.62 21 Aug 21d
0.55 18 Sep 49d
0.60 20 Nov 112d
0.58 18 Dec 140d
0.56 15 Jan 168d
0.58 19 Mar 231d
0.57 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
442 / 442
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $308098 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+47
1W price-0.1%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split C 84% / P 16% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 63/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 100 contracts traded, $108380 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$108380
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 66 contracts traded, $53808 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$53808
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 226 contracts traded, $43260 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$43260
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 172 contracts traded, $41105 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$41105
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $25495 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$25495

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close30.89
1W-0.1%
RS42.8
Fair value+66.6%
Options pressure47
Speculation40
Volatility84
Trend fit63

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 11.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.62 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.46 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:54 Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 13.4%
30 Jul 10:44 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.5%
31 Jul 10:31 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.7%
2 Aug 05:51 Volatility
Pressure 47
Move 11.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.23
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.01
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.60
Put-call9.95
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.49
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts76
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.06

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.63
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.57
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.61
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.60
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.59
Skew0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGEO261120P00026000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike26.00
Volume183
OI56
IV0.61
ContractGEO260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume110
OI2641
IV0.61
ContractGEO260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume101
OI2442
IV0.53
ContractGEO270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume60
OI3408
IV0.59
ContractGEO261218C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike40.00
Volume60
OI1
IV0.56
ContractGEO261218P00028000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike28.00
Volume34
OI32
IV0.59
ContractGEO260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume32
OI97
IV0.70
ContractGEO270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume28
OI2929
IV0.54