Ticker Options Intelligence

DUOL options intelligence

Duolingo Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 07:39 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

DUOL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 15.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.07

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.72

Call-side skew

Trend fit 44

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +10.3%

RS -32.4

Expected move 15.6%
Put-call volume 0.72
Volume / OI 0.07
Reference IV 1.51
Max pain 130.00
Underlying 134.81
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 754

Research Brief

DUOL has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 113.76–155.86; The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 190.00.

Priced range113.76–155.86
Call concentration190.00
Put concentration100.00
Max pain reference130.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 113.76 to 155.86. Max pain at 130.00 sits inside that range, 3.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
113.76134.81 ± 21.05155.86
Confirmation level

A close beyond 155.86 or below 113.76 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 19/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure19 × 42%
+8.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement44 × 26%
+11.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 190.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
367
100.00-25.8%
1
84
105.00-22.1%
0
121
110.00-18.4%
1
9
113.00-16.2%
1
254
115.00-14.7%
0
35
120.00-11.0%
18
64
126.00-6.5%
44
49
130.00-3.6%
97
30
134.00-0.6%
13
58
135.000.1%
81
21
137.001.6%
266
5
140.003.8%
303
0
145.007.6%
66
0
150.0011.3%
239
0
155.0015.0%
75
0
160.0018.7%
167
0
190.0040.9%
413
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.12× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.51 7 Aug 7d
1.09 14 Aug 14d
0.94 21 Aug 21d
0.83 28 Aug 28d
0.85 4 Sep 35d
0.78 18 Sep 49d
0.75 20 Nov 112d
0.71 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

108
110
112
115
117
119
122
124
126
128
130
133
135
137
140
142
144
146
148
153
160
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
754 / 754
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $12.2M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+19
1W price+10.3%
Call premium28%
Put premium72%
Notional split C 28% / P 72% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.07 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 44/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 318 contracts traded, $7.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 57% of visible notional.
$7.0M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 181 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 168 contracts traded, $717250 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$717250
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 562 contracts traded, $595236 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$595236
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 92 contracts traded, $422085 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$422085

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close134.81
1W+10.3%
RS-32.4
Fair value-43.5%
Options pressure19
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit44

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 15.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.51 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.72 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.07 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:39 Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 15.7%
30 Jul 10:35 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 14.9%
31 Jul 10:23 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 9.2%
2 Aug 02:12 Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 15.6%
2 Aug 06:39 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 15.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 7
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 36 · OI 20
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 15 · OI 45
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 12 · OI 17
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 14 · OI 45
Strike100.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 35 · OI 367
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 13 · OI 84

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV1.51
Put-call0.65
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV1.09
Put-call4.36
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.94
Put-call0.31
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.83
Put-call2.69
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.85
Put-call1.80

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.49
Put IV1.44
Skew-0.05
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.01
Put IV1.05
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.97
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.84
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.83
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractDUOL260814C00126000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike126.00
Volume-
OI41
IV1.13
ContractDUOL260814C00137000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike137.00
Volume-
OI27
IV1.05
ContractDUOL260814C00127000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike127.00
Volume-
OI21
IV1.05
ContractDUOL260807C00107000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike107.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.60
ContractDUOL260814C00111000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike111.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.01
ContractDUOL260814C00112000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike112.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.05
ContractDUOL260814C00139000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike139.00
Volume-
OI8
IV1.08
ContractDUOL270115P00640000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike640.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.00