Ticker Options Intelligence

HMC options intelligence

Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 42 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 02:52 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

HMC currently carries mixed options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.43

Put-side skew

Trend fit 84

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +6.9%

RS -5.1

Expected move 5.7%
Put-call volume 1.43
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.26
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 30.11
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 130

Research Brief

HMC has a mixed chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 28.38–31.84; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range28.38–31.84
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 28.38 to 31.84. Max pain at 25.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
28.3830.11 ± 1.7331.84
Confirmation level

A close beyond 31.84 or below 28.38 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 42/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 18/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure18 × 42%
+7.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement84 × 26%
+21.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility41 × 10%
+4.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score42.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-50.2%
0
0
17.50-41.9%
0
0
20.00-33.6%
0
218
22.50-25.3%
1
525
25.00-17.0%
101
74
27.50-8.7%
168
11
30.00-0.4%
1013
2
32.507.9%
342
0
35.0016.2%
4
0
37.5024.5%
5
0
40.0032.8%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.84× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.26 21 Aug 21d
0.31 18 Sep 49d
0.32 16 Oct 77d
0.31 18 Dec 140d
0.31 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

25
28
30
33
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
130 / 130
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

65/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $22770 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-18
1W price+6.9%
Call premium36%
Put premium64%
Notional split C 36% / P 64% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 84/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ATM
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 30 contracts traded, $8100 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$8100
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 54 contracts traded, $6075 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$6075
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $3000 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$3000
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2360 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2360
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $1125 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1125

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close30.11
1W+6.9%
RS-5.1
Fair value+2.7%
Options pressure-18
Speculation40
Volatility41
Trend fit84

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.7% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.26 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.43 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:12 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 11.6%
30 Jul 10:09 Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 14.4%
31 Jul 10:04 Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 13.6%
31 Jul 15:43 Volatility
Pressure -19
Move 12.1%
31 Jul 16:57 Volatility
Pressure -59
Move 11.7%
31 Jul 19:44 Volatility
Pressure -56
Move 11.7%
2 Aug 01:52 Mixed
Pressure -18
Move 5.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 218
Strike25.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 101
Puts · V 0 · OI 525
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 168
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike30.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 1013
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike32.50
Calls · V 8 · OI 342
Puts · V 0 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.31
Put-call3.93
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.54
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.31
Put-call1.36

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.54
Skew0.22
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.36
Skew0.05
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.36
Skew0.08
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.32
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.43
Skew0.20

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHMC260918P00030000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume54
OI36
IV0.29
ContractHMC270115P00030000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume30
OI5
IV0.38
ContractHMC270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume18
OI36
IV0.24
ContractHMC260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume14
OI202
IV0.30
ContractHMC260821C00032500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike32.50
Volume8
OI342
IV0.32
ContractHMC260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume7
OI1013
IV0.31
ContractHMC261016P00022500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike22.50
Volume6
OI1225
IV0.51
ContractHMC261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume6
OI1059
IV0.27