Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PAYP options intelligence
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 22:23 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PAYP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.13.
Expected move
15.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.13
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.72
Call-side skew
Trend fit
76
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-2.5%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
15.0%
Put-call volume
0.72
Volume / OI
0.13
Reference IV
1.81
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
15.13
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
49
Research Brief
PAYP has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.85–17.41; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.
Priced range12.85–17.41
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference15.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 12.85 to 17.41. Max pain at 15.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
12.8515.13 ± 2.2817.41
Confirmation level
A close beyond 17.41 or below 12.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 24/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure24 × 42%
+10.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation16 × 22%
+3.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement76 × 26%
+19.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-83.5%
0
1
5.00-67.0%
0
12
10.00-33.9%
0
39
12.50-17.4%
5
8
15.00-0.9%
16
16
17.5015.7%
426
0
20.0032.2%
140
0
22.5048.7%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$15,980Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.50+$11,086
Negative peak10.00-$343
Nearest balance12.36Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-67.0%
-$30
7.50-50.4%
-$4
10.00-33.9%
-$343
12.50-17.4%
+$20
15.00-0.9%
+$545
17.5015.7%
+$11,086
20.0032.2%
+$2,771
22.5048.7%
+$34
25.0065.2%
+$710
30.0098.3%
+$1,191
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.81
21 Aug
17d
1.09
18 Sep
45d
0.67
16 Oct
73d
0.73
15 Jan
164d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
13
15
18
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 49 / 49
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $61,578 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+24
1W price-2.5%
Call premium38%
Put premium62%
Notional split
C 38% / P 62%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.13
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
76/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 28 contracts traded, $23,932 estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$23,932
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 7 contracts traded, $6,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$6,650
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $5,270 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$5,270
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $5,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$5,050
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 7 contracts traded, $4,070 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$4,070
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close15.13
1W-2.5%
RS-
Fair value-16.1%
Options pressure24
Speculation16
Volatility96
Trend fit76
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:23
Bearish
Pressure -42
Move 16.1%
30 Jul 10:20
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 15.8%
31 Jul 13:06
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.5%
31 Jul 15:38
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 16.9%
31 Jul 16:59
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 16.9%
2 Aug 17:15
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 19.2%
3 Aug 19:41
Volatility
Pressure 47
Move 10.9%
4 Aug 21:23
Bullish
Pressure 24
Move 15.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 12 · OI 12
Strike12.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 5
Puts · V 2 · OI 39
Strike15.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 16
Puts · V 2 · OI 8
Strike17.50
Calls · V 13 · OI 426
Puts · V 1 · OI 16
Strike20.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 140
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV1.81
Put-call0.77
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV1.09
Put-call0.33
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts15
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.52
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.73
Put-call1.23
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.60
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.82
Put IV1.24
Skew0.42
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.71
Skew0.18
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.92
Skew0.30
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPAYP270115P00022500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI5
IV0.80
ContractPAYP260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI2
IV1.71
ContractPAYP260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV7.68
ContractPAYP260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.24
ContractPAYP270115C00022500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.13
ContractPAYP270115P00010000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume20
OI50
IV1.26
ContractPAYP261016C00017500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike17.50
Volume20
OI26
IV0.53
ContractPAYP261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume20
OI24
IV0.54
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.