Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
JMIA options intelligence
Jumia Technologies AG options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 15:56 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
JMIA currently carries mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
8.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.93
Balanced tape
Trend fit
48
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.5%
RS -40.9
Expected move
8.8%
Put-call volume
0.93
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.70
Max pain
7.00
Underlying
5.95
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
382
Research Brief
JMIA has a mixed chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.43–6.47; The largest call open-interest concentration is 9.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 6.00.
Priced range5.43–6.47
Call concentration9.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference7.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 5.43 to 6.47. Max pain at 7.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
5.435.95 ± 0.526.47
Confirmation level
A close beyond 6.47 or below 5.43 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 11/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 9.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 6.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
1.00-83.2%
45
0
2.00-66.4%
58
2
3.00-49.6%
73
4
3.50-41.2%
0
10
4.00-32.8%
6
12
5.00-16.0%
0
82
5.50-7.6%
0
46
6.000.8%
51
103
6.509.2%
127
578
7.0017.6%
318
0
7.5026.1%
12
11
8.0034.5%
138
0
8.5042.9%
6
6
9.0051.3%
405
3
9.5059.7%
0
15
10.0068.1%
2
0
12.00101.7%
7
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.70
7 Aug
7d
1.28
14 Aug
14d
1.06
21 Aug
21d
1.11
28 Aug
28d
1.12
4 Sep
35d
1.11
11 Sep
42d
0.95
18 Sep
49d
0.92
20 Nov
112d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
5
6
6
7
7
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 382 / 382
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $120268 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+11
1W price+1.5%
Call premium46%
Put premium54%
Notional split
C 46% / P 54%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
48/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 207 contracts traded, $52435 estimated gross traded notional, and 44% of visible notional.
$52435
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 170 contracts traded, $19975 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$19975
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 211 contracts traded, $17202 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$17202
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $8050 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$8050
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 247 contracts traded, $6372 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$6372
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close5.95
1W+1.5%
RS-40.9
Fair value-1.0%
Options pressure11
Speculation40
Volatility84
Trend fit48
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:14
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 5.1%
30 Jul 11:01
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 8.9%
31 Jul 00:26
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 8.5%
2 Aug 14:56
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 8.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 45
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 58
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 73
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike3.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike4.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike5.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 11 · OI 82
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.70
Put-call1.35
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV1.28
Put-call1.29
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV1.06
Put-call0.21
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV1.11
Put-call0.12
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.86
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.02
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.15
Put IV1.21
Skew0.06
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.06
Put IV1.11
Skew0.05
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.02
Put IV1.09
Skew0.07
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.10
Put IV0.97
Skew-0.13
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractJMIA270115P00007000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.00
Volume200
OI398
IV0.87
ContractJMIA260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume170
OI1273
IV1.11
ContractJMIA261120P00004000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike4.00
Volume150
OI12
IV0.93
ContractJMIA260814C00006500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume145
OI5
IV1.20
ContractJMIA260814P00005000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume101
OI21
IV1.21
ContractJMIA260814P00005500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike5.50
Volume101
OI-
IV1.23
ContractJMIA270115C00012000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.00
Volume100
OI1226
IV0.90
ContractJMIA260821C00008000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike8.00
Volume90
OI893
IV1.10
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.