Ticker Options Intelligence

ALRS options intelligence

Alerus Financial Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 58 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 3 Aug 2026 05:12 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ALRS currently carries bullish options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.21.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 9.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.21

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.09

Call-side skew

Trend fit 6

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.7%

RS 24.7

Expected move 9.0%
Put-call volume 0.09
Volume / OI 0.21
Reference IV 0.46
Max pain 15.00
Underlying 33.27
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 72

Research Brief

ALRS has a bullish chain read with 58/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 30.27–36.27; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.

Priced range30.27–36.27
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference15.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 30.27 to 36.27. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
30.2733.27 ± 3.0036.27
Confirmation level

A close beyond 36.27 or below 30.27 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 58/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 95/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure95 × 42%
+40.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation45 × 22%
+9.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement6 × 26%
+1.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score58.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-54.9%
0
0
17.50-47.4%
0
0
20.00-39.9%
0
0
22.50-32.4%
0
0
25.00-24.9%
6
0
30.00-9.8%
60
0
35.005.2%
598
0
40.0020.2%
5
0
45.0035.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$103,165Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak35.00+$92,240
Negative peak22.50-$3
Nearest balance22.51Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
15.00-54.9%
+$5
17.50-47.4%
+$7
20.00-39.9%
+$60
22.50-32.4%
-$3
25.00-24.9%
+$572
30.00-9.8%
+$10,218
35.005.2%
+$92,240
40.0020.2%
+$60
45.0035.3%
+$6
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.42× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.46 21 Aug 21d
0.29 18 Sep 49d
0.32 16 Oct 77d
0.32 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

30
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
72 / 72
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Short-dated OTM call concentration

94/100
Primary intent Short-dated OTM call concentration

Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10,732 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+95
1W price+1.7%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split C 93% / P 7% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.21 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 6/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 131 contracts traded, $4,258 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$4,258
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $3,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$3,650
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2,125 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$2,125
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $700 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$700

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close33.27
1W+1.7%
RS24.7
Fair value+58.8%
Options pressure95
Speculation45
Volatility68
Trend fit6

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.46 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.09 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.21 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:19 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.6%
30 Jul 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.6%
31 Jul 11:07 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.4%
3 Aug 04:12 Bullish
Pressure 95
Move 9.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 60
Puts · V 14 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 131 · OI 598
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.10
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.21
Skew-0.08
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.14
Skew0.08
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.05
Put IV0.72
Skew0.66
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.50
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractALRS260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume131
OI598
IV0.29
ContractALRS270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume20
OI2
IV0.26
ContractALRS260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume14
OI-
IV0.21
ContractALRS260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume5
OI60
IV0.73
ContractALRS261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI71
IV0.26
ContractALRS260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.35
ContractALRS261016C00025000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.49
ContractALRS260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI6
IV1.10