Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MFA options intelligence
MFA Financial Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 09:17 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MFA currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
5.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.31
Put-side skew
Trend fit
79
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+11.9%
RS -7.8
Expected move
5.2%
Put-call volume
1.31
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.39
Max pain
9.00
Underlying
9.14
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
138
Research Brief
MFA has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.67–9.61; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00.
Priced range8.67–9.61
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration9.00
Max pain reference9.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 8.67 to 9.61. Max pain at 9.00 sits inside that range, 1.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
8.679.14 ± 0.479.61
Confirmation level
A close beyond 9.61 or below 8.67 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 15/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure15 × 42%
+6.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 × 22%
+3.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement79 × 26%
+20.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility48 × 10%
+4.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
1.00-89.1%
3
0
2.00-78.1%
5
0
3.00-67.2%
2
0
4.00-56.2%
5
0
5.00-45.3%
3
0
6.00-34.4%
1
0
7.00-23.4%
3
32
8.00-12.5%
2
115
9.00-1.5%
10
5
10.009.4%
266
1
11.0020.4%
11
1
12.0031.3%
0
1
13.0042.2%
2
1
14.0053.2%
0
0
15.0064.1%
0
0
16.0075.1%
0
0
17.0086.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.39
21 Aug
21d
0.24
18 Sep
49d
0.37
16 Oct
77d
0.31
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
8
9
10
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 138 / 138
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $20312 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-15
1W price+11.9%
Call premium73%
Put premium27%
Notional split
C 73% / P 27%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
79/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $8250 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$8250
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $4550 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$4550
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 118 contracts traded, $2360 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$2360
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 44 contracts traded, $2310 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$2310
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 50 contracts traded, $688 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$688
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close9.11
1W+11.9%
RS-7.8
Fair value+6.2%
Options pressure-15
Speculation17
Volatility48
Trend fit79
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:14
Bullish
Pressure 90
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 11:00
Bearish
Pressure -58
Move 4.9%
30 Jul 15:02
Volatility
Pressure 79
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 15:44
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 19:39
Volatility
Pressure 82
Move 10.7%
1 Aug 08:17
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 5.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 32
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.39
Put-call4.52
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.37
Put-call3.75
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.03
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.30
Skew0.07
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.04
Skew-0.10
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.57
Skew0.36
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.40
Skew0.20
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMFA260821P00009000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume118
OI115
IV0.30
ContractMFA261016P00009000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike9.00
Volume44
OI682
IV0.38
ContractMFA270115C00011000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike11.00
Volume25
OI841
IV0.21
ContractMFA270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume25
OI554
IV0.19
ContractMFA260918C00007000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.66
ContractMFA260821C00009000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume15
OI10
IV0.24
ContractMFA261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume10
OI947
IV0.21
ContractMFA270115C00009000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike9.00
Volume10
OI53
IV0.17
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.