MFA NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

MFA Financial Inc · Real Estate · Reit - Mortgage

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Latest close 9.11 USD
11.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.1% below the Trend Line and sits at 52.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 11.9%, after a 7.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 35/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 49 out of 100
Latest Close 9.11 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 11.9% latest completed week
4W Return 7.9% short-term follow-through
12W Return -4.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 73.1% 38 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 56.61% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 11.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 7.9%. Indicator stack 40/28 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 56.61% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Mixed 35/100 conviction; expected move 5.2%. News sentiment 52/100 59 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.1% below the Trend Line and sits at 52.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 11.9%, after a 7.9% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.3112-week average 0.55

12-week confirmation

Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.31Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 7.9% over four weeks, -4.6% over 12 weeks, and 11.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W11.9%
4W7.9%
12W-4.6%
26W-1.9%
52W11.7%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year38
Trend breadth73.1%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.17Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-13.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-7.83Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change48.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength80/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Value77/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 24; rank 1 is best.
Quality69/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Momentum34/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Growth80/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
6.9x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
17.9x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
2.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
61.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
37.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
22.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
161.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-1.9%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
22.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
15.8%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
16.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
15.5x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

MFA shows mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.31, expected move of 5.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction35/100
Expected move5.2%
Put/call volume1.31
Pressure-15
Speculation17
Volatility48
Trend agreement79
Open options detail
Insider activity6 / 0

6 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

14 positive · 38 neutral · 7 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move5.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-11.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+11.9%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-8.3%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week+11.9%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains2
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.5% / -2.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape46/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 46/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis16/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.31; 1 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.61%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.61% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors65/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 30; Small Cap Core rank 8 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options54/100

MFA shows mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.31, expected move of 5.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 5.2% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

MFA Financial, Inc. Revenue Breakdown – NYSE:MFA Insiders6 / 0

6 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20269.11 USD11.9%9.30 USD8.58 USD-1.17-7.837.7MOff
24 Jul 20268.14 USD-3.3%9.30 USD8.57 USD-1.36-16.856.8MOff
17 Jul 20268.42 USD-0.5%9.33 USD8.57 USD-1.27-14.837.3MOff
10 Jul 20268.46 USD0.2%9.35 USD8.57 USD-1.08-15.947.1MOff
3 Jul 20268.44 USD0.2%9.37 USD8.56 USD-1.03-15.258.3MOff
26 Jun 20268.43 USD-8.3%9.38 USD8.56 USD-1.05-13.9510.4MOff
19 Jun 20269.19 USD1.2%9.40 USD8.55 USD-1.10-8.669.2MOff
12 Jun 20269.08 USD1.5%9.38 USD8.54 USD-1.28-9.086.9MOff
5 Jun 20268.95 USD-3.3%9.36 USD8.53 USD-1.25-10.156.8MOff
29 May 20269.26 USD1.6%9.35 USD8.52 USD-0.91-9.604.6MOff
22 May 20269.11 USD1.5%9.32 USD8.51 USD-0.52-9.915.6MOn
15 May 20268.98 USD-6.0%9.30 USD8.50 USD-0.06-10.696.8MOn
8 May 20269.55 USD-4.7%9.28 USD8.48 USD0.35-5.1410.2MOn
1 May 202610.02 USD-1.9%9.24 USD8.47 USD0.311.676.5MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.