Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
DE options intelligence
Deere & Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 16:24 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
DE currently carries volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.12.
Expected move
5.0%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.12
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.20
Balanced tape
Trend fit
97
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-5.6%
RS 2.7
Expected move
5.0%
Put-call volume
1.20
Volume / OI
0.12
Reference IV
0.88
Max pain
605.00
Underlying
628.16
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1184
Research Brief
DE has a volatility chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 596.65–659.67; The largest call open-interest concentration is 610.00; the largest put concentration is 450.00. The most active strike by current volume is 475.00.
Priced range596.65–659.67
Call concentration610.00
Put concentration450.00
Max pain reference605.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 596.65 to 659.67. Max pain at 605.00 sits inside that range, 3.7% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
596.65628.16 ± 31.51659.67
Confirmation level
A close beyond 659.67 or below 596.65 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 8/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure8 × 42%
+3.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement97 × 26%
+25.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 610.00; the largest put concentration is 450.00. The most active strike by current volume is 475.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
157
415.00-33.9%
0
509
450.00-28.4%
0
284
475.00-24.4%
0
196
480.00-23.6%
0
154
495.00-21.2%
0
322
500.00-20.4%
0
310
510.00-18.8%
0
231
550.00-12.4%
15
204
595.00-5.3%
30
233
597.50-4.9%
3
116
602.50-4.1%
30
39
610.00-2.9%
473
11
620.00-1.3%
362
8
635.001.1%
200
0
650.003.5%
166
0
655.004.3%
153
0
690.009.8%
221
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.88
31 Jul
0d
0.47
7 Aug
7d
0.36
14 Aug
14d
0.45
21 Aug
21d
0.41
28 Aug
28d
0.42
4 Sep
35d
0.39
18 Sep
49d
0.37
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
510
525
540
555
565
573
583
590
598
605
613
623
630
638
650
658
665
675
690
720
750
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1184 / 1184
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $22.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-8
1W price-5.6%
Call premium65%
Put premium35%
Notional split
C 65% / P 35%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.12
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
97/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
13 Aug
Matched earnings event is 12 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 381 contracts traded, $6.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$6.8M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 664 contracts traded, $2.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$2.6M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1181 contracts traded, $2.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$2.6M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 124 contracts traded, $2.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2.3M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 90 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close592.67
1W-5.6%
RS2.7
Fair value+31.6%
Options pressure-8
Speculation43
Volatility76
Trend fit97
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 3.7%
30 Jul 10:00
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 3.8%
31 Jul 12:22
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 13:55
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 15:24
Volatility
Pressure -8
Move 5.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike380.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 91
Strike415.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 34 · OI 157
Strike420.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike445.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 132
Strike450.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 50 · OI 509
Strike460.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 87
Strike470.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Strike475.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 203 · OI 284
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts125
Avg IV0.88
Put-call2.08
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts109
Avg IV0.47
Put-call1.02
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.84
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.45
Put-call1.76
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.41
Put-call2.02
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.55
Put IV0.53
Skew-1.02
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.12
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.39
Skew-0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractDE260828P00730000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike730.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.52
ContractDE260821C00500000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike500.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.56
ContractDE261218C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI82
IV0.00
ContractDE260807C00597500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike597.50
Volume-
OI40
IV0.47
ContractDE270319C00710000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike710.00
Volume-
OI28
IV0.38
ContractDE260807C00530000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike530.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.55
ContractDE270617P00330000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike330.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.50
ContractDE270617P00420000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike420.00
Volume-
OI15
IV0.40
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.