Ticker Options Intelligence

MSB options intelligence

Mesabi Trust options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 10:31 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

MSB currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 16.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -7.8%

RS -32.1

Expected move 16.4%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.67
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 22.50
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 78

Research Brief

MSB has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 18.80–26.20; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range18.80–26.20
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 18.80 to 26.20. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 11.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
18.8022.50 ± 3.7026.20
Confirmation level

A close beyond 26.20 or below 18.80 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation6 × 22%
+1.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility87 × 10%
+8.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
12.50-44.4%
0
0
15.00-33.3%
0
0
17.50-22.2%
0
0
20.00-11.1%
0
3
22.500.0%
0
1
25.0011.1%
13
0
30.0033.3%
0
0
35.0055.6%
80
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.42× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.67 21 Aug 22d
0.52 18 Sep 50d
0.51 18 Dec 141d
0.47 19 Mar 232d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

20
23
25
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
78 / 78
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $910 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-7.8%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $910 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$910

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close22.50
1W-7.8%
RS-32.1
Fair value+2.7%
Options pressure100
Speculation6
Volatility87
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 16.4% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.67 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:35 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 19.6%
30 Jul 11:15 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 12.5%
30 Jul 21:29 Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 19.3%
31 Jul 09:31 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 16.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 80
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.67
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.52
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.47
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.05
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.99
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.82
Skew0.31
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.75
Skew0.25
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.60
Skew0.16

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMSB270319C00030000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike30.00
Volume7
OI10
IV0.44
ContractMSB260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI128
IV0.45
ContractMSB260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI80
IV0.69
ContractMSB260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI68
IV0.68
ContractMSB260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI51
IV0.49
ContractMSB270319P00017500
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI50
IV0.16
ContractMSB260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI42
IV0.31
ContractMSB261218P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI35
IV0.41