Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
UAL options intelligence
United Airlines Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
47
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 08:17 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
UAL currently carries bearish options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
5.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.68
Put-side skew
Trend fit
80
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.6%
RS 6.0
Expected move
5.9%
Put-call volume
1.68
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.50
Max pain
119.00
Underlying
118.27
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1420
Research Brief
UAL has a bearish chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 111.30–125.24; The largest call open-interest concentration is 150.00; the largest put concentration is 95.00. The most active strike by current volume is 116.00.
Priced range111.30–125.24
Call concentration150.00
Put concentration95.00
Max pain reference119.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 111.30 to 125.24. Max pain at 119.00 sits inside that range, 0.6% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
111.30118.27 ± 6.97125.24
Confirmation level
A close beyond 125.24 or below 111.30 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 47/100
Pressure is 27/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement80 × 26%
+20.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility58 × 10%
+5.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 150.00; the largest put concentration is 95.00. The most active strike by current volume is 116.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
751
95.00-19.7%
0
198
100.00-15.4%
56
7
107.00-9.5%
0
214
110.00-7.0%
11
144
112.00-5.3%
16
251
115.00-2.8%
65
76
116.00-1.9%
67
152
117.00-1.1%
176
108
118.00-0.2%
160
230
119.000.6%
41
189
120.001.5%
34
34
122.003.2%
194
8
123.004.0%
602
26
125.005.7%
61
44
130.009.9%
453
32
135.0014.1%
116
0
150.0026.8%
962
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.50
7 Aug
7d
0.49
14 Aug
14d
0.43
21 Aug
21d
0.47
28 Aug
28d
0.46
4 Sep
35d
0.46
11 Sep
42d
0.49
18 Sep
49d
0.51
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
95
99
101
104
106
108
110
112
115
117
119
121
123
126
128
130
132
134
137
139
141
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1420 / 1420
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-27
1W price+2.6%
Call premium57%
Put premium43%
Notional split
C 57% / P 43%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
80/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 649 contracts traded, $850449 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$850449
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 2388 contracts traded, $774202 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$774202
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1848 contracts traded, $533944 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$533944
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 104 contracts traded, $300348 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$300348
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 2712 contracts traded, $253376 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$253376
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close121.33
1W+2.6%
RS6.0
Fair value+59.1%
Options pressure-27
Speculation41
Volatility58
Trend fit80
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:12
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 10:07
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 4.4%
30 Jul 15:12
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 4.3%
30 Jul 15:38
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 4.2%
30 Jul 19:47
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 20:02
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 3.2%
1 Aug 07:17
Bearish
Pressure -27
Move 5.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike70.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 45
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 28 · OI 10
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 47 · OI 751
Strike98.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike99.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts128
Avg IV0.50
Put-call2.05
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts132
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.88
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.43
Put-call6.32
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.47
Put-call4.41
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.46
Put-call3.48
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.48
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.59
Skew0.08
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.45
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUAL260821P00117000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike117.00
Volume2323
OI343
IV0.45
ContractUAL260821P00107000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike107.00
Volume2321
OI17
IV0.48
ContractUAL260918C00130000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume595
OI3867
IV0.46
ContractUAL260918C00170000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike170.00
Volume491
OI225
IV0.32
ContractUAL260807P00116000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike116.00
Volume365
OI76
IV0.48
ContractUAL260828P00105000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume349
OI45
IV0.50
ContractUAL261016C00150000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike150.00
Volume347
OI788
IV0.47
ContractUAL270617C00150000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike150.00
Volume253
OI85
IV0.50
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.